These days, the "Round Table" of mainstream commodity experts is less a "circle of friends" than a ring of rapidly growing dissent. On one end, the bulls argue that hard assets are entering a new era of gains. And on the other, the bears see a dangerously inflating bubble set to burst.
As the debate drags on, opportunity falls by the wayside. Fortunately, EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy offers a clear and united front right now: In the just-released August 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures, Jeffrey presents consistent insight into where these and more leading markets are likely headed from an objective, Elliott wave perspective:
W-heat Wave: In Monthly Futures Junctures' "Featured Market" segment, Jeffrey addresses the "insane" gains in this grain since June: a 100% price increase in just eight weeks, to be exact. The pressing question is: Will it continue higher? You get four pages of analysis and SIX price charts where Jeffrey presents compelling evidence that "strongly argues" for one kind of price move.
Next up is MFJ's "Wave Watch." Here, Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 12 markets, each of which include clearly marked up/downside objectives and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Staying Cocoa's Course: All through the hullabaloo surrounding the cocoa market (SEE: London hedge fund manager buys up entire stock of Europe's cocoa) Jeffrey Kennedy has stayed objective to the market's near-term swings. (SEE: archive of Jeffrey's cocoa analysis below):
- December 2009 MFJ: With prices at a 30-year peak, "It's time to prepare for a trend change. Cocoa's price chart is a flashing strobe light. With five waves up and done, expectations call for a selloff to near 3000."
Prices fulfilled this script to a "T," and then some.
- April 20, 2010 Daily Future Junctures: "I anticipate a time consuming corrective advance that will ultimately push prices into Fibonacci resistance at 3143-3231. Once this area is achieved, we'll look for the resumption of the downtrend."
Cocoa prices rallied to the cited target area and once again, turned down to a nine-month low before pausing in June.
- July 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures, "Our analysis [begins] with the daily price chart of London cocoa and that ending diagonal that I've outlined... This pattern alone argues that cocoa has registered a top... and certainly argues that a massive buying effort at this time is ill conceived."
With cocoa circling the drain of a one-plus year low, what's next?
Hot Coffee: The June 2010 MFJ "Feature" highlighted coffee for the first time in a year-and-a-half. Opportunity was hot. Jeffrey saw "technical evidence supportive of additional gains in the weeks ahead." Soon after, coffee continued to rise, soaring smoothly to the new contract highs we see today.
Sugar: As prices approached a 30-year peak early this year and mass hysteria of "Peak Sugar" broke out -- the January 25 Daily Futures Junctures hit this sour note: "The upcoming market top should set the stage for a large and time consuming fall." From there, prices plummeted 50%-plus to a one-year low before pausing in June. Then, the June 4 DFJ "Weekly Wrap-up" turned bullish and showed prices rising to the 17.60-19.01 range. What now?
Cotton: The January 2010 MFJ "Wave Watch" presented an exciting picture that showed prices nearing the end of wave (4) down. Once complete, wave (5) was set to introduce a powerful rally to new contract highs. In short order, cotton stole the show with prices soaring to a new all-time high. Now, the August MFJ spins the long-term yarn.
Believe it or not, that's just the beginning. The new, August 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures presents labeled price charts for SEVEN other key markets, including an educational, two-page "Traders Classroom" lesson on the importance of volume.