Marijuana advocates across America gathered in large groups on April 20 to observe what they call a "high holiday." The unofficial holiday, known as 4/20, encourages pot-smokers to celebrate the drug's rising acceptance by smoking a joint, even though it's still illegal to purchase or smoke marijuana for recreational use.
But the times they are a-changin', as Bob Dylan wrote and sang in the 1960s and '70s. Fourteen states now allow the use and sale of marijuana for medical reasons, and similar measures are on ballots for upcoming elections in 14 other states. According to a USA Today article published, ironically, on April 20, Colorado's medical marijuana business is booming:
"In the past six months, the number of patients and dispensaries has skyrocketed ... Experts estimate more than 100,000 Coloradans can buy medicinal marijuana legally..."
Tolerance toward the drug is growing at a rapid rate, but it wasn't too long ago that increased regulation -- not acceptance -- was the norm. In 1999, the Drug Enforcement Administration banned importing products that contained THC (marijuana's psychoactive ingredient), and 10 years earlier, in 1989, President George H.W. Bush delivered his famous "War on Drugs" speech that drew praise from both ends of the political spectrum.
What's changed so drastically over 20 years that now more than half of the 50 states are on their way to legalizing marijuana for medical purposes? Socionomics provides some much-needed clarity to the haze surrounding the drug-acceptance debate.
Mass social mood moves in waves, from optimism to pessimism and back. Social mood influences people's actions and their social judgment. During periods of optimism and positive social mood, drug abuse is a popular target of backlash and criticism.
But on the other end of the spectrum, during periods of negative mood and pessimism, recreational drug use is seen as less dangerous -- almost as an accepted way to cope with the pressures of everyday life.
EWI's sister organization, The Socionomics Institute, investigates changes in social mood as reflected by the stock market, music, fashion, movies and, yes, acceptance of drug and alcohol use to make social predictions. In July 2009, one of its analysts wrote:
A falling mood produces tolerance and relaxed regulation. In the case of alcohol, the path from prohibition to decriminalization became littered with corruption and violence as the government waged a failed war on traffickers. Eventually, as mood continued to sour, the government finally capitulated to public cries for decriminalization as a means to end the corruption and bloodshed.
We predict a similar fate for the prohibition of marijuana, if not the entire War on Drugs. The March 1995 Elliott Wave Theorist first forecasted the Drug War's repeal at the end of the bear market and in 2003, EWT stated that during the decline, "The drug war will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized."
It looks like 28 of the 50 states are well on their way to decriminalizing the use of drugs for medicinal purposes. Could recreational use be next? According to the Socionomics Insitute, that all depends on where social mood is headed.
Looking for a new way to understand social changes going on around you? You're not alone -- the analysts at The Socionomics Institute are dedicated to social prediction and preparing subscribers for big shifts in politics and culture before they happen. You can read the Institute's latest socionomic observations and forecasts every month in The Socionomist. Click here to find out more.