It has come to be called the "Greek Tragedy of 2010" -- the staggering fall from financial grace underway in the Hellenic Republic.
Last check: Greece's economy teeters on the brink of bankruptcy with nearly $400 billion in outstanding debt, a national deficit four times greater than the allowed 3% ceiling, and a main stock index that continues to clutch the depths of a six-year low.
That's to say nothing of Greece's mounting political tension with Germany, growing threats of EU banishment, and a crushing tidal wave of public outrage over the government's "draconian" money-raising methods; such as: civil servant pay cuts, pension freezes, and tax increases.
As one recent news source aptly put it, Greece is slipping debt-long into a whirling "vortex of defamation and economic devastation." (AP) The real tragedy, though, is that the mainstream financial experts didn't see said "vortex" coming until it was too late.
Case in point: Two years ago, the financial narrative for Greece was one of triumph. The Athens Stocks Exchange (ASE) orbited an eight-year high, the nation's budget deficit had been reduced from 8% in 2004 to less than 3% in 2007, unemployment had fallen 3% over the same period, and GDP growth was well above expectations.
At the time, the myth of Europa -- in which Zeus transforms into a mighty bull and sweeps the goddess away on his back -- became a popular allegory for the nation's economic success. Evidently, a new bull market in Athens was going to carry the entire Eurozone towards glory. See new items below from late 2007-early 2008:
- "Greece Is The Key To Emerging Economies." (AP)
- "Thriving Greek Economy To Continue," says Greek Minister of Finance. "The Greek economy has entered a new era." (Greek News)
- "Greek shares soar 8%, the strongest single-session gain in more than ten years as investment turmoil" reduces oil prices and euro levels. "These factors help in a continuation of the economy's dynamic growth in the coming years." (Kathimerini)
YET -- from its January 2008 peak, the ASE turned down in a violent 70%-plus selloff, right alongside one of the worst financial crisis's in Greece's history.
The fact of the matter is -- no lightening bolt came down from the heavens, blasting Greece's economy into smithereens. Its reversal of fortune was a very earth-bound, foreseeable event for those who heeded the objective picture presented by Elliott wave patterns.
Like -- the January 16, 2008 European Short Term Update, for instance. In that publication, EWI's analysts presented the following close-up of the ASE Composite Index alongside this timely insight:
"The sharpness of the breakdown over the last two weeks suggests to me that a significant correction has begun. I would rather work from the thesis that the rally from 2003 is complete and that the decline is correcting the whole rally."