Home > Economy
Can The Fed Ensure Economic Recovery? RATE-ing In Vain
This Holiday season, all hopes are pinned on the bearded man in the fancy suit AND his faithful team of helpers to swoop down and deliver the one gift that is on everyone's wish list: A sustained economic recovery. And no, I'm not talking about sled-driving Santa, but rather Fed-driving Ben Bernanke.
According to mainstream wisdom, as the future of the U.S. economy hangs in the balance, only one authority can keep things afloat: The Federal Reserve Board, via an accommodating monetary policy and other strategic emergency measures.
On this, the following news items capture the widespread "Don't Fight the Fed" mentality:
- "Financials Retain Gains As Fed Keeps Rates Steady." (MarketWatch)
- "Low interest rates helped stimulate the moribund economy in 2009... By the time the Fed raises rates, the market correction will be largely complete." (USA Today)
- Bernanke is named Time Magazines "Person of the Year" for "preventing the US from sliding into a depression." (Associated Press)
One problem: Interest rate policy won't make a lick of difference as far as stimulating the much-needed consumer to spend, the creditor to lend, or the corporation to borrow. On this, Chapter 13 of Bob Prechter’s award-winning book Conquer the Crash describes the “monetary strategy” of lowering the Federal Funds Rate to be as effective as “pushing on a string.”
Think about it: Since September 2008, the Fed has slashed rates TEN times to a record low of .25-0%, in addition to supplying over $1 trillion in bailout money to encourage banks to borrow and lend cheaply. YET -- to this day, the violent credit and housing downdraft has continued.
Here, the following stats say plenty: The Philadelphia/KBW Banking Index has plunged 90% from its 2008 peak, alongside 140 bank failures and 500-plus FDIC-listed "problem institutions." Not to mention the fact that year-over-year bank credit now stands at NEGATIVE -6.8%, versus + 10% in 2007.
Sound familiar? Fact is, more than enough time has passed to see that similar tactics did nothing to slay the biggest financial bears in U.S. history.
- During the period between 1929 and 1932, the Federal Reserve eased rates from 6% to 2.5%, a rate-cutting crusade that did nothing to prevent the Dow Jones Industrial Average from plummeting 89% in the steepest stock market crash ever amidst a period of unprecedented economic contraction known as the Great Depression.
- From 1984 and 1992, the Federal Reserve slashed rates from 11.75% -- TO -- 3%. This period was marked by the worst stock market collapse since the Great Depression (October 1987), record-high unemployment, a debilitating savings and loans crisis, slow GDP, and economic recession.
- Similarly, a Federal Reserve rate cut from 6.5% -- To -- 1.25% from 2000 to 2002 proved impotent against the longest stock market decline since the Great Depression, the tech-bubble bursting, and a brief economic recession.
(Please Note: From June 2004 to June 2006, the Central Bank RAISED rates from a half-century low of 1% -- TO -- 5.25%, an equally futile effort to tighten the spigot of easy money and remove the froth from the bubbling housing market before it burst.)