2009 has been a wild ride for the lean hog market. Starting in spring, hog prices turned down in a powerful selloff to multi-year lows. Then, from their August bottom, prices shot up faster than the blood pressure of a dad teaching his teenage daughter to drive for the first time.
Here's a visual of the market's dramatic show (source: ino.com):
Of course, it goes without saying that seeing these huge turns at the start -- rather the end -- of their developement would have been better. And, with the help of EWI's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, such a goal was in reach.
Here's a quick look at Jeffrey's Futures Junctures Service analysis of lean hogs:
May 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures opened with a "Featured Market" segment on hogs that included five charts, four pages of commentary, and this bold conclusion:
"A highly reliable traditional technical chart pattern -- the head-and shoulders -- calls for further decline to the 47.00 objective. It is the Elliottician, though, who can put this price action into its larger context. Once hogs do find its bottom, a [major] advance is expected to develop."
Next up: Jeffrey Kennedy's September 16 Daily Futures Junctures. While the bearish wave count took precedence, Jeffrey observed the alternate potential for gains and wrote: "The rally from the August low does contain impulsive wave characteristics." YET, without a "clear five-wave advance" and a sustained breach of resistance, Jeffrey's focus was still on the downside... for now.
The October 8 Daily Futures Junctures: The previously alternate bullish count rose to the forefront. Jeffrey presented the following price chart and wrote:
"Today's move through critical resistance negates the bearish outlook all together, thereby indicating that the larger trend is now up." AND presented following chart.
So, after months of rallying, the question for hogs is clear: Is the winning streak set to continue?