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Corn: Is The Bullish Party Over?

By Nico Isaac
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:00:00 ET
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Fact: Corn prices have officially gone from sizzling to fizzling. On Tuesday, June 30, the grain's prices plunged to the Chicago Board of Trade's imposed daily down limit to end at a fresh, four-month low.
As for why-- the mainstream experts pointed their accusatory finger at two specific U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. To wit:
  • The June 29 crop rating; it gave a 72% good-to-excellent score for the "shape" of the current corn harvest.
  • And, the June 30 USDA acreage projection; it revealed the second biggest corn crop since 1946, a figure that far surpassed even the highest analyst estimates.
In the words of a related Wall Street Journal piece, "Corn Investors Cry: 'Get Me Out Of Here'. This type of number is one of those that can change market sentiment."
Just one problem: "Market sentiment" changed from bullish to bearish long before this "shocking" crop report hit the webosphere. To be exact, the most recent downtrend in corn prices began on June 10. From there, prices turned south in an unrelenting sell off.
(Corn & Company: Will the Grains Gain Again? The current Monthly Futures Junctures presents a special, in-depth segment on the long-term trend unfolding in corn, wheat, and soybeans. Harvest the insight today. Click HERE)
As for seeing the reversal in Corn's fortune ahead of time, Elliott Wave International's chief commodity expert and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy deserves full credit. In the May 28 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey first brought corn's bearish potential to the attention of his readers. In that issue, Jeffrey presented the following close-up of the grain and wrote:
"Corn has essentially been range bound between 420 and 430 for the last 12 trading days. What is certain about this type of price action [typically indicative of a triangle] is that it won't continue. Once complete, corn will expand down."

Then, in the June 4 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey upped the urgency of his analysis. In his own words:
"In the corn market, we are anticipating a near-term corrective price peak that should set the stage for a subsequent five-wave fall. The current rally sequence is now late in developement."
Flash ahead to today and the trend of objective, original insight into corn continues. In the current Monthly Futures Junctures, Jeffrey presents a special, four-page "Feature" on the long-term trend changes in store for Corn -- and its other two grain brothers, wheat and soybeans. In his opening commentary on corn, Jeffrey writes:
"The message that the Wave Principle is offering now is just as clear. This means that the stage is set for" ONE kind of move.

The opportunity awaits. Get the complete Futures Junctures Service today, absolutely risk-free.

Tags: Corn, Commodities, Grains, wheat, soybeans

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Watch Bob Prechter's interview on CNBC Wednesday, Nov. 4. Bob discusses the current juncture, Conquer the Crash II and more.
Robert Prechter on CNBC
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