Home > Economy
Is The Recovery In Its Early, or Late Stages?
Bob Prechter reveals whether the "Old Bull Market" is back
After two years of suffering through what has aptly been called "financial hell," many in the mainstream say the torture is finally over. According to them, the fire & brimstone is about to become fortune & boom.
"There are nascent signs of economic recovery," reports a June 11 Associated Press report. Among them are a steadily rising stock market, soaring bank shares and a pick-up in real estate deals.
Well, in a special "Double" (text + video) issue of the brand-new June 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter recognizes a "swift return of all the old beliefs" in a new bull market. His next step is to reveal whether those beliefs are based in fact or fantasy.
- Worst-Case Scenario: Hyperinflation: It seems "Obvious." As Helicopter Ben drops his money bags, the U.S. dollar collapses and emerging shares rise. One problem: The Fed's policy of supplying credit depends entirely on the public's willingness to use it. If not, debt implodes, hard assets plunge and the dollar soars -- the very definition of DE-flation.
- The Fed Controls Interest Rates: If that were true, then explain this: After a two-year-long, $12.8 trillion bailout buying binge by the central bank, long-term interest rates stand at a new yearly high.
- Is the U.S. Dollar doomed, and is the bull market in Oil back? The Theorist's compelling close-ups show a common thread running through both markets; namely, their next move should be a "powerhouse."
- "Precious" Insight: The March 14, 2008 Theorist put out a call for a peak in precious metals. In the 10-month long decline that followed, gold and silver shed a respective 30% and 60% off their values. Now, the rebound since then has restored faith in the metals' "safe haven" premium. The Theorist sets the record straight.
Seeing and Hearing is believing whether the
bull market is back. The rare, "Double" issue of the
June Elliott Wave Theorist includes 10 pages of written insight AND one riveting HOUR of live video recording of Bob Prechter's speech at the Market Technician Association 2009 Symposium. Click
HERE to access the video now along with Prechter's latest
Theorist.
Bob Prechter "violently defies the claimed correlation" that interest rates set the P/E ratio. And, in the June Theorist, you can see exactly why: A powerful chart of data going back to 1871 shows that dramatic drops in P/E multiples do NOT require higher bond yields.
- Does the re-emergence of bullish psychology indicate a new bull market in stocks? The June Theorist presents three possible counts for the DJIA since 1966 in order of attractiveness. ALL three indicate that prices are headed in one direction.
Believe it or not, that's only the beginning. In the second part of the Theorist's "Double" issue, Prechter includes a recording of his May 14 lecture at the Market Technicians Association 2009 Symposium. No bells or whistles; Just a live recording of Bob's hour-long speech on why the world's leading financial sectors are on the verge of a "once in a generation" event.
Here are few of the most compelling insights from Bob's chart-filled presentation:
- Is the 58% plunge in stocks from their October 2007 ENOUGH to mark the end? Bob answers this with three KEY measures of valuation: Dividend yields, the P/E ratio and percentage of cash held by mutual funds.
- Myths Debunked: Bob presents several historical price charts of Real Estate and Commodity values VERSUS stocks. The message is profound: Neither housing nor hard assets are safe-havens.
- A "SILENT" Crash Is Loud & Clear: Bob shows a picture of the Dow Jones Industrial Average priced in terms of gold, the only real historical measure of value. From its July 1999 peak, the index has plunged more than 80%.
The special "Double" issue of the
June Elliott Wave Theorist is available right now. Click
HERE and get the complete package in a matter of seconds.