Over the last few months, the Soybean market has taken the grains complex by bullish storm: As of June 10, soy prices stood at their highest level in nine months.
And, according to the mainstream experts, there is one main factor behind the powerful bounce in beans: A declining U.S. dollar. Here, the following news item tips its hat to the notion:
"Soybeans advanced as the dollar declined. A weaker dollar has boosted demand prospects for US oilseed and grains." (Bloomberg)
There's just one problem: This idea has more holes in it than a slice of Swiss cheese. In reality, there is no consistent correlation between beans and the buck. To see this, you need only look at a basic price chart of the two markets side by side. Case in point: in the first half of soy's surge (from mid-March to late-April), the U.S. dollar also enjoyed a steady rise.
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The Next Big Move In Soybeans Is... In the June 10, 2009
Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey Kennedy presents four compelling close-ups and in-depth commentary on where this grain could be in the days ahead.
Click HERE for the complete story.)
Now, while the usual suspects were doing their best to shove a square "fundamental" into a circular event -- long after Soybeans' rally had already begun -- the March 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures foresaw a strong rise in the grain's future before the tide had turned in earnest.
In the March publication, Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy presented the following insight:
"Wave patterns in soybeans are shaping up in such a manner that a test of the January high seems imminent. A bit more upside is required to shift the odds of such a move entirely in one direction... and move our [bullish] labeling to the forefront."
The rally since then speaks for itself.
What now? Well, in the June 10 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey Kennedy visits the short-side of Soybeans and reveals why an "EXCITING" move may be close at hand. In the last of FOUR price charts, Jeffrey shows that price action of late has unfolded as an ending diagonal triangle.
Any Elliott Wave veteran knows: diagonal triangles are one of a few patterns that precede "dramatic" change.