There's been a lot of news lately about the misfortunes that come with falling property values, such as the 20% of U.S. homeowners who are now "underwater" (the mortgage balance exceeds the home's value).
Yet there are also bits and pieces of reporting out there which describe what follows a decline in asset values, namely people buying assets they believe have fallen to the "firesale" price level. What's missing in the relative few stories about a firesale purchase is the question nobody thinks to ask: Is this a remnant of the old bull market psychology -- and can the real "low" in the economy arrive until that psychology really is gone?
Here's what I mean:
I agree that it ain't much to look at. Its location (Cainsville MO, pop. 370) doesn't exactly distinguish the place, either. But the building in the photo is the First National Bank of Cainesville -- and a firesale price of $17 million did distinguish it enough to turn a New York private-equity-billionaire-investor into a buyer.
Its "national bank" charter didn't hurt either, inasmuch as that charter means the institution is a member of the Federal Reserve System; this membership in turn bestows several accompanying privileges that would make it just a little bit easier "to go on a nationwide buying spree" of other banks. The New York Times says that for all the worries about a "banking crisis,"
"...giant private equity players are circling distressed banks around the country, competing to buy into the industry. Bidding wars are now breaking out among private equity firms....They and other investors see banks as the recession’s biggest prize: potential money machines that could one day generate fabulous returns, particularly after the federal government eats the losses of failed banks, then heavily subsidizes their sale."
Alas, the only holdup in this scheme is, well, the Federal Reserve itself and the law it enforces, to wit: Non-financial private equity firms cannot own banks. So, while a New York billionaire can purchase a bank with his own money, he cannot "tap into the billions" his firm has available to begin his buying spree of other banks.
There is of course the old notion about how The Sale Begins When the Customer Says No -- which must explain why these private equity groups have "enlisted an all-star cast of advisers, lobbyists and lawyers" to argue on their behalf. They even managed to swing a meeting with the chairman of the New York Fed.
It's beside the point for me to speculate about how this particular story will turn out -- I'll only say that the outcome likely depends on whether the Fed's ruling comes before or after the bear market rally is over.
What IS the point is the bigger picture. I can't imagine that this story would have had prayer of appearing in a major newspaper back in early March, when the Dow was at a 12-year low. That was two months and a 30% rally ago, which is all it took for bull market behavior -- and news stories about it -- to reappear.
There's a lot more to say regarding the psychology of a bear market rally: you can find out all you need to know from the publications that saw it coming and see it for what it is.
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and Bob Prechter's
Elliott Wave Theorist are both online right now:
Click here for more.