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A Crucial Fact Overlooked by Most Investors
Economic news does not create the stock market's trend.
The economy follows the stock market. It's a fact typically overlooked by conventional market forecasters who think the opposite. From an Elliott wave perspective, their thinking is simply backwards.
Here's a good example. Think back to July 2007, when the "credit crunch" first hit and quickly morphed into a global deflationary crisis. Was there anything in the mainstream news at the time that even remotely hinted at deflation and trouble ahead for the stock market? All I remember is various CEOs coming on TV and talking about their prospering companies, peppering interviews with phrases like "Goldilocks economy" and "It's never been better."
But stocks tanked in July 2007, made a slight new high in October -- and then fell like a rock for 18 straight months. The economy followed.
Now, compare this week's rally in the DJIA with the week's bleak economic news. Continuing unemployment claims topped 6 million for the first time. March housing starts dropped 11%. Foreclosures jumped 46% from a year ago. Manufacturing continued to contract. Earnings were "tepid." Yet the DJIA finished the week higher. And remember that it bottomed in early March, when there was nothing to get happy about, period -- and has rallied almost 25% to date since then.
Just from these few examples, it's clear that something is really wrong with the view that "good news rallies the market while bad news makes it fall."
This point is crucial for investors to understand -- that's why our publications remind subscribers of it so often. The April issue of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF; online now) says:
"You’ve heard us say many times, contrary to what most economists believe, news does not create the trend. Be prepared: In its final weeks, the advance will re-ignite some of the zaniness of 1999 and 2007... By the end of wave 2, many market followers and economists will proclaim that the bear market is dead and the boom is back."
How high might this Primary-degree rally go? For answers, look no further than the just-published, April issue of Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. Read both the EWFF Interim Report and the new Theorist now -- all part of this risk-free package.