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How Low Will Cocoa Go? Don't Ask The Dollar...
Since the beginning of April, the Cocoa market has been about as "sweet" as a cup of curdled milk: On April 15, prices ended the trading day at their lowest level in one month.
Throughout the market's steady decline, the mainstream experts have reached into their giant, bottomless bag of fundamentals AND pulled out the following bits of wisdom; starting from newest to oldest:
- April 15: "Cocoa falls on weak technicals." (futuresource.com)
"Weak Technicals" is code for: "I have no idea why, fundamentally, prices are falling."
- April 14: "Cocoa drops on lower-than-expected European grind." (guardian.co.uk)
Sorry Charlie: The slew of data revealing a drop in Cocoa demand started to flow long before this bearish report out of Europe.
- April 6: "Cocoa Plunges 9%, its largest drop in more than a year, on a stronger dollar... It takes away a lot of interest funds may have in trading softs." (Bloomberg)
Question: If a rising greenback is bad for Cocoa then explain this: From December to February, a sustained rise in the dollar did nothing to buck the uptrend in Cocoa prices.
Reality check: The most recent downtrend in Cocoa got stared on April 3, when prices stood at their loftiest level in TWO months. And, in the April 3 Daily Futures Junctures "Weekly Wrap-up," long-time editor and Elliott Wave International's chief commodity expert Jeffrey Kennedy set the stage for a pending DROP via the following close-up:
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The best part is, in the new, April 15 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey revisits the Cocoa market to reveal when the downtrend may end. See the complete story -- ALSO including new insights into Corn's near-term wave count -- today, absolutely risk-free. Click HERE to get started.