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Stocks: “Even the Greatest Moves Are Not One-Way Affairs”
The DJIA’s recent strength is likely more than just a passing blip.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
Thu, 26 Mar 2009 13:15:00 ET
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They say that markets “fluctuate.” But despite what most investors believe, those fluctuations are not random – they are patterned. That’s the main idea behind Elliott wave analysis.
 
This diagram shows an idealized Elliott wave pattern in a bull market: five “steps,” or waves, forward and three “steps” back.
 
 
You may say – fine, but what proof do you have that the markets really move like this?
 
Well, do you remember when the DJIA registered its all-time high? It was at 14,093 on October 12, 2007. That’s when EWI’s monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) made this forecast:
 
Elliott Wave Financial Forecast
November 2007 (data through November 1)
BOTTOM LINE: An across-the-board extreme in optimism toward a wide range of markets should lead to an across-the-board decline. In a rare event that is consistent with EWI’s all-the-same market thesis, stocks, oil, metals, commodities and many foreign currencies all sport recent 90%+ bullish sentiment readings. These extremes typically coincide with market tops.
 
That forecast was largely based on this Elliott wave picture showing in the DJIA at the time (as presented in the October 2007 EWFF):
 
 

As you can see, the Dow’s advance into the October 2007 peak followed an idealized Elliott wave path. And, as the pattern suggested, what would come next was a strong decline.  

The Dow’s 54% drop into the 6,470 intraday low on March 6 speaks for itself.
 
But markets don’t move in straight lines. For every rally, there is a setback. For every decline, there is a correction. And if you’ve been wondering whether or not the DJIA’s latest advance is just a short-term bear market trap or the bottom, wonder no more.
 
On Wednesday, March 25, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast editors sent an urgent Interim Report to subscribers, explaining why this advance is likely to be more than just a passing blip. In the words of the Interim Report, “...even the greatest moves are not one-way affairs.”
 
Markets “fluctuate” in predictable patterns – and right now, they are calling for an advance. How big and for how long? Get the answers now in the March 25 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Interim Report – risk-free.
 

Tags: DJIA, bear market trap, Stocks

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.

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