Over the last year, crude oil has thrown the mainstream energy experts for more loops than a knitting needle. One huge whopper of a loop: the severe 70%-plus freefall in oil prices from the July 2008 high to a recent five-year low.
In the words of a March 9, 2009 New York Times: "Predicting oil prices is tricky business. As prices rose to $147 a barrel last year, some analysts suggested that oil would reach $200 a barrel. Instead, prices plummeted after their July peak."
Let's be perfectly clear: Fundamental analysis in general is "tricky business," because it depends on ever-fluctuating external events for direction. Elliott Wave analysis, on the other hand, uses the internal measure of mass social mood, as reflected in the wave patterns unfolding on price charts, to point the way of a market's trend.
Here, Elliott Wave International's Energy Specialty Service has remained one step ahead of the complete boom-to-swoon turnaround in black gold. To wit: One day before crude oil hit its all-time peak, the July 10, 2008 Specialty Service acknowledged the downside potential in the market’s near-term future and wrote:
“Two key topping indicators are still evident – extreme bullish sentiment and relentless media attention. Possible third and fourth signs – volatility and cries for more government regulation of commodity trading – are nearing their heads… It all points to a very mature uptrend.”
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How Low Is Oil Set To Go? The latest
Energy Specialty service includes in-depth analysis and original price charts for OIL on every time frame: daily, intra-day, weekly, and monthly.
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In addition to supplying the above insight, the July 10 Specialty Service also presented the following chart of Crude prices since the year 1859 -- when the first commercial oil well was drilled in the United States. (Some labels erased for this publication.)
This historical close-up provides the most comprehensive and objective evaluation of crude’s long-term trend out there. You can see this picture in its entirety, along with the latest weekly Video Recap of oil, online now – on the Energy Specialty Service homepage.