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Pain OR Gain For Grains: Find Out Now
If external events drive trend changes in financial markets, then the "road" of fundamental analysis would go in two simple directions: Bullish news would put prices on a northern route; and bearish news, a southern one. The end.
That, however, is not the case, when in fact -- the "fundamental" freeway has more twists and turns than a midwestern corn maze.
Here we go to the recent news items surrounding the Soybean market. On the morning of Thursday, February 26, I started to jot down all of the mainstream stories on soybean prices as they appeared across the popular newswires. And, as the following record will show, the path is hardly a smooth one:
- "Soybeans likely to remain with bearish trends"-- VS. -- "Soybeans up on global cues."
- "A lack of bullish news… have the market poised for a lower start." – VS. -- "Soybeans up on weaker dollar. The only thing people are looking at is the dollar. There's nothing real fundamental going on right now. You can forget about oil…"
- VS. -- "Firm crude oil prices will be supportive."
- "A turn towards drier and hotter weather in the Northern growing areas (of Brazil) will favor the early harvest of crops." -- VS. -- "Winter storm warnings (in mid-west, western United States) will place significant constraints on local cash grain trade."
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Talk about a "road to nowhere." As for getting somewhere, let's talk facts: The most recent downtrend in soybean prices to a two-month low got started on February 9. Days before the grain pulled up to its peak, the February 6 Daily Futures Junctures "Weekly Wrap-up" presented following close-up of soy that showed prices nearing a critical upside juncture.
Now, in the February 26 Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott Wave International's chief commodity expert Jeffrey Kennedy returns to soybeans to reveal where prices could be in the days ahead. In Jeffrey's own words: "Soybeans have been following their Elliott Wave script nicely."