You know the phrase -- Don't mix business with pleasure. NOT for a large part of Japan's labor force. For these workers, job performance is a direct function of the three "P's".
- Data Processing
- Power Point presentations
- And -- Procreation
Here, a January 26 CNN.com article breaks the following story: "Japanese workers urged to go home and multiply."
The gist: In order to combat the "greatest threat" facing Japan's economy – low birth rates – many of the nation's largest businesses have enforced a mandatory "Light's Out" program: Twice a week, employees must leave work early to spend quality time with their families: i.e., make whoopee.
Sorry to say, but from an Elliott wave perspective, a few less hours at the office isn't likely to to solve Japan's fertility woes. One thing, and one thing alone, will get the Japanese in the "mood" for making babies: a rise in social mood, as reflected by the trend in stocks.
I repeat: A rise in mood (and stocks) = A rise in diaper duty. Ten years ago, EWI's founder and president Bob Prechter put this very notion forward in his September 1999 Elliott Wave Theorist's compelling case study "Sex and Stocks." Bob's main observation:
"In a bull market, when aggregate feelings of friskiness, daring, and confidence wax, people engage in more sexual activity with the aim of having children. When these feelings wane (bear market), so does the desire for generating offspring."
Also: Because it takes nine months between the procreative impulse and a child's birth, the trend in annual data on births should lag an important stock market turn by a year or so.
Flash ahead to Japan's experience: From 1989 to 2003, the Nikkei Average endured an unrelenting bear market to all-time record lows; all the while, the nation's birth rates also turned south.
In May 2003, the Nikkei hit bottom and set off on a powerful uptrend. After dipping to a historic low, Japan's birth rate then ROSE on cue in 2006 for the first time in six years. From there, both the Nikkei and the (unofficial) "Nookie" index rallied in sync until the former turned down from its July 2007 high.
And now: The Nikkei stands 40%-plus below its 2007 peak, while Japan's birth rate struggles to rise. Whether stocks -- and Storks -- will be back in bullish business in the years ahead, the current, January 2009 Global Market Perspective (GMP) has the answer.
Get objective and original Nikkei analysis from the one source that has stayed ahead of the major turns in the index. Case in point:
At the Nikkei's all-time low in May 2003: The June 2003 GMP writes:“Minor wave B is nearing completion. Bearish momentum is waning. A push past 8451 would indicate that at trend reversal was underway.”
And at the Nikkei's seven-year high in July 2007, the July 2007 GMP writes:“Once [critical support] is broken, a drastic decline is expected to unfold.”
Following on its heels, the December 2007 GMP raised the bearish stakes and wrote: "The tug of war between the bullish and bearish wave counts was won by the bears. Taking out the last bastion of support would be a nefarious event, further establishing that a major top is in place."