Over the last two weeks, oil prices have seen more ups and downs than a Cirque De Soleil trapeze swinger. On Friday December 5, prices swan dove to a four-year low after clocking in their second largest weekly loss in energy trading history. And, according to the mainstream experts, oil's woes -- which are intrinsically linked to the global economic slump -- had only just begun.
"It doesn't matter what the price is at this point," began a December 6 Wall Street Journal. "It's just 'get me out of any position I have." – AND – "After the jobless number, any bulls left in the oil market will become extinct." -- Bloomberg
Turns out, oil bulls did NOT go the way of the Dodo. Quite the opposite: On Monday, December 9, crude prices turned up in a powerful three-day winning streak to their highest level in two weeks.
After tacking on a dramatic 10% gain, oil prices then slipped from their December 11 peak and tumbled to a fresh, four-year low.
Which begs the question -- Random behavior OR planned routine? According to the mainstream experts, the answer is "A." In their words: "There seems to be no rhyme or reason to prices." – AP.
EWI's Energy Specialty Service editor Steve Craig disagrees. No matter how volatile the twists and turns in oil prices -- Steve has been able to spot the underlying Elliott Wave pattern at large.
Case in point: ONE day before oil hit its all-time peak on July 11, 2008, the July 10 Specialty Service acknowledged the downside potential in the market’s near-term future and wrote:
“Two key topping indicators are still evident – extreme bullish sentiment and relentless media attention. Possible third and fourth signs – volatility and cries for more government regulation of commodity trading – are nearing their heads… It all points to a very mature uptrend.”
As for crude's most recent swings, Steve has remained one step ahead. To wit:
The December 5 low: December 4 Daily Energy Specialty Service forecast presented this bullish case: "I am looking for a credible ending pattern… Once the bottom is in, a substantial advance should unfold" in wave four.
The December 11 high: December 11-12 Intraday Energy Specialty Service wrote: "The recent rebound looks corrective and complete, so we'll continue with the outlook for a fifth wave down. Resistance is at 50.39, which would be an 'ideal' price for this rebound to end."
The best part I saved for last: The latest Energy Specialty Service forecast presents the following chart of Crude prices since the year 1859 -- when the first commercial oil well was drilled in the United States. (Some Elliott wave labels have been erased for this publication)
This historical close-up provides the most comprehensive and objective evaluation of crude’s long-term trend out there.
The picture can be seen in its entirety, along with in-depth analysis on every time frame in the latest forecasts of the Energy Specialty Service. In Steve Craig's own word: “I’m anticipating a volatile, gut wrenching, fear-laden”move in Crude Oil.