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Stocks & Crude: A "Rare" Alignment?

By Nico Isaac
Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:30:00 ET
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On the evening of Monday, December 1, a side-by-side pairing of the two brightest planets in our galaxy – Venus and Jupiter – will be joined by the Earth's crescent moon. The end result: A "rare [celestial] alignment" that takes the shape of a “smiley face” in the night sky – AP.
Repeat Performance, sort of: During the daylight hours of December 1, a similar spectacle was already spotted in the skies over Wall Street: A seemingly "rare” alignment between the U.S. stock market and crude oil; this one, however, formed a huge “frownie face.”
To wit: At its lowest level, the Dow Industrials plunged a gut-wrenching 679.95 points right alongside a 10%-plus decline in crude oil to beneath $50 per barrel. And, as far as the mainstream experts see it, the joined status of stocks and crude is as scarce an event as Halley’s comet.
Why are stocks and oil falling together? The usual pundits blame a rising U.S. dollar. Problem is, the greenback didn’t start rallying in earnest until late August – nearly one year AFTER the DJIA hit its all-time, October 2007 high, AND one month AFTER crude oil touched its record peak in July ’08.
Despite what mainstream economic wisdom says, the alignment between U.S. stocks and crude oil is anything but rare. This myth-busting truth was at the center of the August 2006 Elliott Wave Theorist. There, long-time editor and Elliott Wave International’s CEO Bob Prechter presented the following close-up of the 52-week correlation between oil and stocks since 1996.
 
(The Financial Galaxy: Black Hole or Bright Star? The November 2008 Financial Forecast Service looks through the lens of objectivity to reveal whether the economic constellation is of bull or bear. Get the complete package today, risk-free.)
Take your time looking this picture over because you won’t see anything like it in the mainstream media. That’s the upshot of selective reporting. Now, however, Bob Prechter’s message can persist:
There is no consistent correlation between stock and oil prices over time. That’s the markets job: to throw a snowball into the air to catch your attention so that when you look up, it can smack you in the jaw with another one. Don’t Fall For It.”
In the years since the August 2006 Theorist presented the above close-up, the relationship between stocks and oil has indeed remained uneven. To wit:
-- From August 2006 to January 2007: crude oil plunged 36% as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied above the 12,000 level.
-- From January 2007 to October 2007: crude oil surged from below $60 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel; the DJIA also soared to an all-time record high of 14,279.
-- From October 2007 to July 2008: Crude oil continued soaring up to the outer galactic $150 per barrel region, while the DJIA plummeted south. Then, on July 11, crude joined the stock market on the downside. From their respective peaks, the Dow has lost over 40% in value, while oil has slashed 60%-plus.
As for seeing the synchronized slump in stocks AND oil BEFORE it appeared on the financial radar, consider the following excerpts from our own personal records:
For the Dow Jones Industrial Average --
October 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast: “Despite the renewed enthusiasm of investors, there remain many subtle signs that the market is losing steam.”
October 9 Short Term Update: “Odds have increased that a market high is in place. The structure, coupled with turns in the other markets, suggests a top is in place. The potential, at the least, is for a large selloff.”
For Crude Oil --
June 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast: "The oil chart offers a complete, or nearly complete, bull market pattern. The rally is reaching an end… after which a strong and sustained decline ensues."
June 9 Elliott Wave Theorist: "I am publishing this issue a bit early in order to alert you to an opportunity developing in the oil market. Oil is due to peak soon…”
Bottom line: The financial stars continue to be aligned for one of the most dramatic, history-book making events of our lifetime. Get the full story today.
 
 

Tags: Crude oil, dow jones industrial average, oil, us stocks

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Watch Bob Prechter's interview on CNBC Wednesday, Nov. 4. Bob discusses the current juncture, Conquer the Crash II and more.
Robert Prechter on CNBC
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