Over the last four days, I put myself in the (hypothetical) shoes of an average commodity trader schooled in the thought of mainstream economic wisdom, whose main point is this: Outside circumstances drive the ups and downs in the financial markets.
The market I choose is Orange Juice. Before I make any major decisions and establish a position, I gather all the fundamental news out there regarding O.J. Here's what I find:
Monday, November 10: "Florida's 2008-9 season for O.J. is rife with challenges, not the least of which is" high retail prices, slack demand, the highest level of weekly supply since 2004, a larger-than expected crop, and lack of hurricane damage. (Wall Street Journal) – That's bearish.
Tuesday, November 11: "Florida's FCOJ movement, an indicator of demand, is expected to rise 8.3% from the '07-'08 season, based on an anticipated decline in imports." (AP) – That's bullish.
Wednesday, November 12: "Traders are watching a newly developing weather system that may hold some potential for development, which may have encouraged light buying interest." (Futuresource.com) – That's…well, not really sure.
Thursday, November 13: "Traders will have to wait until the December 11 crop production report from the US Agriculture Department for any significant news." (AP) – Um, OK, so I guess I'll have to put off my trading decisions for a month?
Total score: One bearish, one bullish, one potentially bullish, and one neutral development. If my math is correct, that equals ZERO idea about where Orange Juice prices will move next.
For anyone NOT pretending to be a commodity player, though, the REAL journey has a far happier ending. In the November 13 Daily Futures Junctures (online now), Elliott Wave International's chief commodity expert Jeffery Kennedy visits the Orange Juice market to reveal where the next near-term opportunity could be.
According to Jeffrey's analysis, price action in Orange Juice has unfolded in one of two ways: As a "flat" or as a "contracting triangle." In either case, though, the implication for O.J. prices is the same: a dramatic change ahead.
So, what are you waiting on? Put yourself in the shoes of someone walking the clear and objective course to opportunity. Subscribe risk-free to Futures Junctures Service today.