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Cotton: Futures Forerunner

By Nico Isaac
Thu, 09 Oct 2008 15:30:00 ET
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The votes are in. The ballots are tallied. And the official frontrunner has been declared. (And no, we’re not talking about the 2008 Presidential Election)
We’re talking about the current race to determine which market -- out of all the major commodity candidates out there -- is the greatest contender for near-term opportunity. And the winner is: Cotton

So. Now that you know the WHO, the next obvious issue is WHAT animal the next big move in cotton will represent: Bull or Bear? Well, if you ask the mainstream financial experts, cotton’s price leanings are directly linked to the state of the overall stock market. Here, one Thursday, October 9 news source explains:

“Cotton fell to a new contract low as forecasts for global economic weakness continued…Demand is the big issue for cotton at this point – in recessionary times [it’s] very vulnerable to reductions in usage by consumers. Cotton prices will come up when equities do.” (Futuresource.com)

To borrow from Presidential hopeful Barack Obama’s recent verbiage: “The straight-talk wagon just lost” all FOUR wheels on that one. I.e. the facts don’t check out, as this brief look at the last three major recessions in U.S. history -- versus -- the performance of cotton prices during those periods makes plain:

  • 1973-1975: DJIA down, Cotton prices more than DOUBLE
  • 1980-1982: DJIA down to flat, Cotton remains unchanged
  • 2001-2003: DJIA down, Cotton soars more than 20%

Conversely, during the economic boom and raging stock market bull of 1996 to 2000, cotton prices plunged more than 50% to a 13-year low.

And, most recently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its all-time record high on October 11, 2007. Yet -- Cotton prices did not reach their respective peak until FIVE months later, in early March 2008.

(Cotton Wilts To Contract Low:  The October 8 Daily Futures Junctures presents in-depth analysis and labeled price charts of Cotton that show exactly which side of the fence to stand on. Act Now)

As for the clear and objective facts -- The October 8 Daily Futures Junctures includes an original close-up of COTTON that shows a classic “IMPULSE” pattern underway since September.

Here, Elliott Wave Principle – Key To Market Behavior offers a complete definition:

“Impulse waves subdivide into FIVE waves and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.”

And, according to the October 8 Daily Futures Junctures’ analysis of COTTON – this market is on verge of making a “pivotal” move.

So, what are you waiting for? Make the most informed decision there is. Subscribe risk-free today to the complete Futures Junctures Service.

 

Tags: Commodities, futures, cotton, recession

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