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"Skirmish," "Invasion," and/or "War" Between Russia and Georgia
How the Conflict is "Unscheduled, But Not Unpredicted"
The erupting conflict between Russia and the Republic of Georgia in South Ossetia can safely be described as an unscheduled news event: Initial news reports of the fighting ranged from "armed skirmish" to "invasion" to "war."
Some news stories tried to offer a context to Friday's fighting, saying it represents the culmination of years of tension between Russia and Georgia. While the tension has indeed been long-standing, this still begs the question: Why is the "culmination" unfolding now?
In other words, does the context have a context?
I'll put it this way: Anyone familiar with Alan Hall's forecast knows that today's eruption is unscheduled, but not unpredicted. Alan is my colleague and an analyst for our Global Market Perspective publication. In November 2007, he published a two-part research paper (20 pages total), "Sizing Up A Superpower," which assessed the relationship between Russia's turbulent history and its then-current social mood.
At that time, Russia was celebrating explosive economic growth, huge oil revenues, and the "heroic" leadership of Vladimir Putin. There were no fears of war on the horizon.
But Alan had a very different take on what the near future would hold for Russia; even so, his research got a hugely favorable response. Subscribers sent us laudatory messages for several months.
His forecast was this: Russia's mood had reached the kind of "historically unprecedented, positive extreme" that precedes an "extreme trend change" toward the negative. He also wrote that the situation "bears watching, because it has serious implications for Russia and the rest of the world."
Among several likely sources of conflict that bore watching, Alan wrote
"The U.S. supports Georgia's desire to bring its pro-Russian separatist regions under control, but Russia has military plans to stop any move by Georgia to secure these regions....
"Russia’s long history of border wars and its desire to reclaim the resources of satellite states lost upon the collapse of the U.S.S.R. make future border conflicts likely. NATO, Muslim and Asian countries border Russia on the west and south. The ethnic diversity within these states represents conflicts-in-waiting for the xenophobia that attends bear markets."
Sizing Up A Superpower includes other forecasts that could also prove to be "tomorrow's news today." It's available online right now. Click here to learn more.
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