On June 25, at 2:15 PM, the Federal Reserve did the expected and left U.S. interest rates unchanged at 2%, albeit "signaling rising worries about inflation risks." (The Wall Street Journal)
Going into the announcement, the general expectation of the analysts quoted in the financial media was for the USD to "come under a little bit of pressure'' after the news. And it did: The buck first gained, but then lost to the euro, pushing the EURUSD exchange rate about 100 pips higher in the afternoon.
The question now is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come?
Well, with the Fed's decision out of the way, all eyes now are on the European Central Bank that meets next week to decide on interest rates in the Eurozone. And the ECB has been talking "inflation," hinting they may not sit on their hands like the Fed did on June 25.
We will leave it up to fundamental forex analysts to decipher the trend in the EURUSD based on all these hints and allegations. The focus at Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service is strictly technical; it's Elliott wave patterns in forex markets' charts that we're trying to interpret.
Here's an intraday comment that Currency Specialty Service editor Jim Martens posted for subscribers on the morning of June 25, before the Fed's announcement:
11:09 ET/15:09 GMT
[Market Insight]
Start clearing a spot for me to stand on your desk because I'm headed there!
Going into news, I could not ask for a better set up. Let me explain why. The chart [of the U.S. Dollar Index] shows a clear five-wave decline.
That decline failed to move beneath the prior low at 73.04, so I see the decline as just the first wave in a larger decline sequence. So I'm bearish [the USD] just from that knowledge. The subsequent recovery looks corrective, and it retraced to the upper end of the Fibonacci [resistance] area; that could be all of the correction. Everything is bearish [for the dollar]. Thinking about the available wave patterns, it looks as though a flat correction is unfolding. A flat would ideally end with the dollar sneaking above 73.38 – maybe on news – in a C wave. The pattern is proven wrong above 73.652.
So, we have all the ingredients: a bearish wave pattern, an expectation of where the next top should form (just above 73.38), and we know where the outlook is wrong (above 73.652).
I'm always asked about putting the Wave Principle to use. This is a perfect example.
A perfect example, indeed.