What's a good way to gauge sentiment surrounding a financial market? Well, a couple of not good ways include the long-delayed minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, or some half-baked survey among a fraction of big-name economists.
Forget those, and instead consider the cover of popular magazines.
Think about it: The job of an editorial staff is to sell, sell, and let’s not forget, sell. They reserve the prime spot of their publications for topics that appeal most urgently to the masses. When a certain financial market is appointed to that slot, it’s no accident.
Here’s the twist: According to Paul Montgomery’s “Magazine Cover Indicator,” once a market’s performance is featured on the front pages, its attention-getting trend has reached its end.
In the last twenty-year history of Japan’s Nikkei Average, the reliability of this indicator has been phenomenal:
1989: Japan is in the midst of a multi-year boom in housing and economic growth, the Nikkei 225 has soared to never-before-seen nosebleed heights above the 30,000 level, and, in the ultimate display of East meets Western standards of wealth, Mitsubishi has just purchased New York’s Rockefeller Center.
The land of the rising sun WAS the ultimate cover story: “Japan: From Superrich to Superpower” (Time) -- AND -- “Money Boom For Japan: Gilded Age Of Riches” (LA Times)
Global Market Perspective has recently added enhanced coverage of Asia and Asia-Pacific markets, including Japan. Click here to learn more about Global Market Perspective.
In a matter of months, the Nikkei would enter a 14-year long bear market that slashed 80% off its value to a two-decade low. During this period, Japan’s housing bubble would burst, crashing land prices, public debt would soar to 140% of GDP, the economy would undergo its longest and deepest slump since World War II, and the flight of the soaring stock market would be replaced by the “plight of the suicidal salarymen.” (The Guardian)
May 2003: The SENTIX Nikkei 225 Sentiment Index stands at its lowest level in five years. “Japan’s Deflation Disaster,” a cover story, writes: “Times are awful. Life is hell. Deflation seems frighteningly permanent. There is no easy escape.” (BusinessWeek)
That month, the Nikkei 225 hits bottom and recovers alongside Japan’s rebounding economy.
Summer 2007: After a powerful rally, the Nikkei stands at a fresh, seven-year high. Corporate activity is robust, and bank lending shows positive growth for the first time in eight years. “Japan’s Bull Still Breathes.” (Forbes) “Japan is back and has a rightful place in your global ETF portfolio.” And -- “Rise! Japan’s Stocks: To the 20,000 Level.”
That July, the Nikkei hit its head and came tumbling down 30% to a two-year low on March 27, 2008.
Present Day 2008: Daily sentiment for Japan’s Nikkei stands at a five-year low, and the downbeat magazine covers abound. Here, the April 2008 Global Market Perspective picks this Economist lead from the pile: “Japan: Why you should be worried about the world’s second-largest economy.”
Which begs the question: Does the magazine mug shot of doom portend a coming boom in Japanese stocks? Well, first consider the following record of Global Market Perspective’s past analysis on the Nikkei 225 Average:
June 27, 1990 GMP: “By almost any method of valuation, the Japanese market is now the most overvalued stock market of the last two centuries. If any market is ripe for a crash, this one seems to be.”
June 2003 GMP: “Minor wave B is nearing completion. Bearish momentum is waning. A push past 8451 would indicate that at trend reversal was underway.”
July 2007 GMP: “Once [critical support] is broken, a drastic decline is expected to unfold.”
And then ask yourself: How long does it take to subscribe to the April 2008 Global Market Perspective?
Global Market Perspective has recently added enhanced coverage of Asia and Asia-Pacific markets, including Japan. Click here to learn more about Global Market Perspective.