If you're a currency trader, you know exactly what the word "intervention" means. When a central bank decides to step in and buy or sell a currency to fulfill whatever plan it may be pursuing, it may wreak havoc on the forex markets.
The most famous case of intervention has to be the Plaza Accord – a September 1985 meeting by France, West Germany, Japan, the U.S. and Britain where they agreed to "depreciate the US dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark by intervening in currency markets." (Wikipedia)
The plan worked: Following the Plaza Accord agreement, the dollar fell hard. But not every intervention (or a hint of one) works as intended. A lot depends on whether or not forex traders believe that an intervention may in fact occur – or have the desired effect if it does.
What happened in the forex markets this past weekend was not an intervention – just a strong allusion to one. At their April 11 meeting, the G-7 group, which includes Britain, U.S., Canada, Japan, Italy, Germany, France and Italy said that, "there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability.'' (Bloomberg)
That was taken by some forex traders to mean that the G-7 may step in and buy the falling dollar, like they bought the euro in September 2000. In the words of the French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who directly compared the April 11 G-7's statement with the Plaza Accord, "It's a strong statement, which I am not sure the market has yet fully understood and appreciated.''
You could say that again, Madam Lagarde. Because over the weekend, the EUR/USD exchange rate went precisely nowhere. "There's a credibility gap between what the G-7 is saying and what they can do," said one currency strategist. "The market is…ignoring them.''
We at Elliott Wave International cannot tell you whether or not the G-7 decides to act in support of the USD. That kind of knowledge is outside the scope of Elliott wave-based forecasting.
But what we can tell you is this: At this moment, "it all points to dollar weakness."
That's a quote from the latest intraday update that EWI's Currency Specialty Service editor Jim Martens posted for his subscribers at 17:27 Eastern (New York) time (21:27 GMT) on April 14. By "it all" Jim is referring to Elliott wave patterns he currently sees in the charts of all the major currency pairs and this EUR/USD chart:
Why is Jim Martens bearish the dollar? In Elliott wave terms, "The setback from 1.5885 looks corrective." And Elliott wave corrections, by definitions, must be fully retraced – or more. As we mentioned earlier, interventions only work when forex traders believe in them. And Elliott wave patterns in the EUR/USD charts strongly suggest that currently, forex traders just don't buy the intervention rumors.
To find out the exact price targets we see for the EUR/USD and other majors in the hours and days ahead, subscribe to EWI's Currency Specialty Service now. Forecasts are posted 24 hours a day, and you can have the latest ones on your screen in minutes.