Elliott Wave International - Free Updates

What Is The #1 WRONG Question About the Real Estate Market?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 05:15:00 ET

I'm a big believer in the proverb that says, To get the right answers, ask the right questions. And if you saw the story about real estate on 60 Minutes this past Sunday evening, you already know that the #1 wrong question about the real estate market is to ask the following question.

Median Home Prices: $30,300 LOWER

Robert Folsom — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 05:45:00 ET

Not to make light of real "distress," it seems to me that apart from super-wealthy homeowners, any homeowner who needs to sell would find this a distressing environment. In 2006 the median sale price of existing U.S. homes was $221,900, or $30,300 higher than today -- so if your home price was anywhere close to that 2006 median (as mine was), that's how much poorer we are.

Real Estate (Video): What's Next for Australia, Japan, China, India and Others?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

Real estate is the one financial market everyone cares about. Now that home prices are down as much as 25% in some parts of the U.S., overseas homeowners – in Europe, Asia and Australia – are starting to worry about what will happen to values of their homes. Watch this free video for some answers.

When Will the Media Get It? Someone Did Foresee the Credit Crisis

Gary Grimes — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:30:00 ET

It’s no surprise homeowners felt invincible; they'd been told to feel that way every day. The mainstream media – the group who believes they're supposed to question authority for the good of John Q. Public – got caught with their pants down. Government agencies appeared equally inept – or at least unwilling to confront the problem. But there were a select few who not only knew, but were ready and waiting.

Conquer the Crash Delivered Today's News in 2002

Alan Hall — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 05:30:00 ET

The truly remarkable part of the story is how early he saw them. Bob described the ways that many dominoes would fall before some of them were even set up. His earlier book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was published in 1995, while Conquer the Crash was in 2002. This was years before the gathering storm became obvious to “Dr. Doom,” (the New York Times’ name for economist Nouriel Roubini) who described parts of the bursting bubble in 2006.

Real Estate and "Phone Book Guys"

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

In the U.S, they have become as ubiquitous as hotdog street vendors, or a McDonald's at every highway exit – lawyer ads on the back of the phone book. In the age of Blackberries, phone books aren’t what they used to be, and those back-cover ads are unbelievably expensive. Yet, with the lawsuit now pending by the state of New York against Swiss bank UBS AG, those phone book lawyer guys are likely to get a whole lot busier...

Ba-dum -- Jaws Sinks Teeth into Housing on Both Sides of Atlantic

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 07:45:00 ET

Remember the movie Jaws? Now we've got a housing shark as big as Jaws, and when it attacks, it takes out economies, too. Where will it strike next?

Fannie, Freddie Signal Bigger Problems for U.S. Economy

Peter Kendall — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 02:45:00 ET

The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a “great transformation,” one that extends beyond real estate to the larger economy and many aspects of our everyday lives. See this story about Fannie Mae's recent troubles.

U.S. House Prices Down 14%, But 12 Nations Face Worse

Susan C. Walker — Thu, 22 May 2008 02:00:00 ET

Although we've become accustomed to negative news about U.S. home prices and foreclosures, perhaps it's worth looking outside of the U.S. of A. to see how other countries are doing. Surprise – home prices in 12 nations have gapped up much more than in the United States.

Credit Crunch: Millions of Dumb Decisions, In Their Own Voice

Robert Folsom — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

Over the weekend I listened to a podcast from "This American Life" about the housing crisis. It was an exceptionally well-done story, which combined simple explanations of the crisis with personal interviews of people who helped create it. And I do mean "create" -- everyone from the manager of a massive hedge fund specializing inCDOs (collateralized debt obligations), to a guy with no full-time job and bad credit who managed to get a $540,000 home equity loan...

Housing Market: Fallen Horse

Nico Isaac — Fri, 09 May 2008 04:45:00 ET

In many ways, the May 3 Kentucky Derby tragedy is not unlike the fateful events unfolding in the U.S. real estate market, otherwise known as the mournal Housing Race... The downfall of the housing bull, however, was not a "freak accident," unforeseeable until the damage was already done...

How Mania Psychology Trumped Swiss Banking

Robert Folsom — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 05:00:00 ET

Subprime debt was on the mind of some 4,200 shareholders who assembled this week in Bern, Switzerland for UBS's annual shareholder meeting. Sentiment at the gathering was described as "raucous" (which to my mind suggests that if the crowd was anything but mostly Swiss, their emotional state may well have incited an all-out, chair-throwing spasm of violence). Shareholders received assurances that UBS's top executives and board would be repopulated by bankers with more conservative instincts; they were also told that the firm was very sorry and wouldn't do it anymore. Assurances aside, the plight at UBS begs the question: How could a revered institution -- which represents a centuries-old tradition of "confidence, security, and discretion" in banking -- become a case study in irresponsible asset management?

The Fed Gets "Visual"

Robert Folsom — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 05:30:00 ET

If you've wanted to see precisely how widespread the subprime debacle has become, I came across an online tool today that can give you a pretty good idea. And it really is precise: you can see the picture on a national level, or drill down to data for states, counties, and even ZIP codes. At each of these levels, the tool will report on a dozen categories of data regarding subprime conditions, from the share of subprime mortgages "90+ days delinquent" to the share of late payments in the past 12 months to the share that comprise "low/no doc" loans....

Why I Almost Felt Sorry For the Politicians

Robert Folsom — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:45:00 ET

Apart from the irreconcilable interests at play (lenders vs. homeowners), it's an election year. Even if the politicians do get something passed, it will soon be all-too clear that they've in effect put a band-aid on an amputated limb. Simple arithmetic shows that since August 2007, the average number of foreclosure filings exceeds 7,000 per day. A story in today's Wall Street Journal cited a report estimating that "foreclosures won't peak until the middle of next year"...

As Night Follows Day ... What Follows Prices Southward?

Robert Folsom — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 05:30:00 ET

This week leaves little doubt that the hunt for villains phase is indeed underway. For the past two days, The Wall Street Journal has run page-one stories about the transformation from good to bad: one article (yesterday) was about an all-too-obvious person, while the other (today) described a process, and the institutions behind it...

Foreclosure Bailout Plan Falls Short ... by a Few Billion Dollars

Gary Grimes — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 04:30:00 ET

A recently presented government plan to fight blight around the country recommends providing $10 billion to state and local governments. Considering the fact that there were 87,000 foreclosures in California and Florida alone in January 2008, let's do the math.

The REAL "First Big Book on the Credit Crunch"

Robert Folsom — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 05:15:00 ET

Yesterday I said that the Economist magazine had just published a favorable review of a book about the housing market crisis. The author is a respected financial journalist, and a thumbs up from a publication like the Economist suggests a book that deserves to be taken seriously. But consider these other quotes, specifically the "who" & "when" behind them...

"Stocks Rise" on the Worst Housing Market "Since the Great Depression"?

Robert Folsom — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 05:15:00 ET

Now, all this data sums up a clear-enough picture of the housing trend. It's uniformly bad. If your home's value stands anywhere near today's median price, you are approximately $30,000 poorer than you were 20 months ago. So why spell all this out? Heck, everyone knows the housing situation is ugly, with our without reading the particulars. My reason for putting the facts before you begins with this quote, which was typical of what stock market stories were saying around 11:00am this morning...

Not "Stagflation," But DEflation...

Robert Folsom — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 01:45:00 ET

Yesterday on this page I suggested that it's absurd to compare today's ailing economy to the economic woes of the 1970s. I asked the rhetorical question, Can you have "stagflation" -- or even a strong overall inflationary trend -- if home prices are headed in the other direction? Unfortunately, what I've read today makes me wonder if "headed in the other direction" was an understatement. The source of my wonder was (yet again) a front-page story in The New York Times, which included this staggering quote...

Will "Stagflation" Stop My Home Price From Falling?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 05:30:00 ET

Have a good look on the chart for those insanely inflationary spikes from 1974 and 1979, and then at the comparatively minor increase of recent months. Does anything about the chart data itself recall the 12% to 15% inflation of the 1970s?? Apart from the WSJ and NYT planting the thought, would the word "stagflation" even come to mind?

Money for Nothing, Home Price Decline for Free

Robert Folsom — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 04:00:00 ET

In my case, the chart helps explain the following: If my single-family home is priced at the 2007 median of $217,000 -- a 1.8 percent decline from the 2006 median price -- then I'm $3,906 poorer than I was a year ago. My rebate ain't gonna cover that by even one-third. I won't ask who I'm supposed to see about making up the difference....

Housing Hollowed Out

Alan Hall — Tue, 05 Dec 2006 11:40:00 ET

The housing market is beginning to resemble a watermelon I once floated in a pond overnight to cool. The next day a small hole was in one end and the red interior was completely gone, hollowed out to the sour green rind, sculpted by little teeth. Some muskrat had a feast.