Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

The Gold U.F.O.: Unexplainable Falling Object?
There is no conspiracy behind the persistent weakness in gold

By Nico Isaac
5/17/2013 5:15:00 PM

According to a growing number of well-respected sources, the downtrend in gold is a great and artful conspiracy. Yes, they're serious. The 'I smell a rat' notion stems from the widely-held belief that prices in major financial markets do not suddenly fall off cliffs. Gold is not supposed to be as volatile as lesser commodities, but instead be an insurance against panic.

Filed Under: , Elliott wave, Gold, gold futures, precious metals

Category: Gold and Silver 


Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?
Why, of course it is! But please read on to understand why it's a trick question.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/17/2013 4:15:00 PM

To decipher the meaning of economic reports like consumer confidence is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data are supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Stocks don't fall after good reports, or rise after bad ones...do they? Well, take a look at these financial news headlines and guess when they were published...

Filed Under: , Bob Prechter, bull market, buy and hold, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, Elliott wave, market forecasts

Category: Stocks 


Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference
History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe

By Bob Stokes
5/17/2013 3:45:00 PM

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation. One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

Filed Under: , bloomberg, CNBC, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression

Category: U.S. Economy 


Market Insight: USDJPY Completes a 5-Wave Rally
Once the market makes the move, it's easy to find economic or political factors to pin it on. What’s hard is to know where the market will go before the news.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 5:15:00 PM

On May 15, just as EURUSD broke below the psychologically important price level of 1.30, USDJPY staged a rally. The mainstream forex news sources cited various fundamental factors for the dollar strength/yen weakness. Yet, as you have probably noticed, those explanations almost always make perfect sense -- but only after the fact.

Filed Under: , currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies 


EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?
Wave analysis works because it helps you track the waves of the market's crowd psychology, which unfold in predictable patterns.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Filed Under: , currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, forex, forex trading

Category: Currencies 


Lenders and Borrowers "Just Say No" to New Credit
Why low interest rates are not stimulating the economy

By Bob Stokes
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

The desire of lenders to lend and of borrowers to borrow has shriveled dramatically. Interest rates have been historically low for years now, yet the economy is barely treading water. History shows that low interest rates are rarely bullish for the economy. Learn why.

Filed Under: , conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, home sales

Category: Interest Rates 


Why a Triangle Marks the Spot of Opportunity in Cocoa
See how a contracting triangle preceded dramatic price moves in 2 major commodity markets

By Nico Isaac
5/16/2013 4:00:00 PM

School may be winding down for summer break, but the Elliott Wave class is still very much in session. And on the syllabus for today's lesson is the Elliott wave pattern known as the contracting triangle.  Here's where you'll want to start taking notes. First, there's the basic definition and diagram of the pattern.Then, there's two real-world examples of the contracting triangle signaling dramatic price moves in sugar and coffee.

Filed Under: , cocoa futures, coffee futures, commodities, contracting triangle, Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott wave, Jeffrey Kennedy

Category: Commodities 


Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear
Don't get caught in the demand data crosshairs.

By Nico Isaac
5/15/2013 3:00:00 PM

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

Filed Under: , crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis

Category: Energy 


Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some
If you thought Dow 60,000 was far-fetched

By Bob Stokes
5/15/2013 2:30:00 PM

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Filed Under: , Bear market, bull market, Elliott wave, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter

Category: Stocks 


Why Trend Extrapolation Doesn't Work in Financial Markets
History is filled with dramatic social changes.

By Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT
5/14/2013 1:30:00 PM

Futurists nearly always extrapolate past trends, and they are nearly always wrong. You cannot use extrapolation under the physics paradigm to predict social trends, including macroeconomic, political and financial trends. The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change.

Filed Under: , Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter

Category: Classic Prechter 


Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: , 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks 


What Trading Elliott and Flying a Plane Have in Common
Both skills can be tested with a simulator: Part 2 of our interview with Wayne Gorman.

By Jill Noble
5/13/2013 4:45:00 PM

Watch over a senior Elliottician's shoulder to see every aspect of his techinical approach; from wave counts and fibonacci targets to specific trade management techniques.

Filed Under: , Elliott Wave Education, Elliott Wave trading, technical analysis, Traders, trading lessons

Category: Trading Lessons 


If the Fed Stops Easing, Will Gold Start Wheezing?
The answer is in central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011.

By Nico Isaac
5/13/2013 4:30:00 PM

Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll hear something like: A hawkish Federal Reserve is to gold prices what kryptonite is to Superman. End the money printing and low interest rates, and you take the gravity-defying power out of gold.

Filed Under: , central banks, Gold, quantitative easing, stimulus package

Category: Gold and Silver 


Soybean Prices: Sticking Out Their Neck(line)
3 real-world examples of how the head-and-shoulders pattern anticipates dramatic price moves

By Nico Isaac
5/10/2013 6:00:00 PM

You've probably never heard the words "Mint Chocolate Chip" and "Head-and-Shoulders pattern" uttered in (nearly) the same breath. But for EWI's senior commodities analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy, those apparently unrelated phrases do indeed have something in common -- namely, they are two of Jeffrey's favorite things in the whole wide world:

Filed Under: , cotton futures, Daily Futures Junctures, Gold, head and shoulders pattern, Jeffrey Kennedy, soybean futures, soybean oil

Category: Commodities 


Higher Housing Prices: Prepare for the Flop to Follow the Flip
Will real estate history repeat?

By Bob Stokes
5/10/2013 5:30:00 PM

The National Association of Realtors reports that home prices are up 11.6% year over year. And that has a new surge of house flippers into the real estate market. If the housing market is poised for another dramatic downturn, almost no one sees it coming.

Filed Under: , all the same market theory, Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, housing prices

Category: U.S. Economy 


The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading
Examples from Whole Foods Market (WFM) and Reynolds American, Inc (RAI) show you what to do (or not) to trade successfully with Elliott.

By Jill Noble
5/10/2013 11:00:00 AM

Avoid two common trading pitfalls: educate yourself with a valuable lesson from Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy.

Filed Under: , elliott wave junctures, Elliott Wave trading, Jeffrey Kennedy, risk management, technical analysis, Traders

Category: Education 


How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous
Beware of what accompanies market tops.

By Bob Stokes
5/9/2013 4:45:00 PM

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

Filed Under: , 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter

Category: Classic Prechter 


The Looming Financial Flameout: Phase II
A picture of financial assets at financial institutions as a percentage of GDP acts as a warning to investors.

By Robert Folsom
5/9/2013 4:15:00 PM

This chart updates an earlier version published in the January 2007 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. At that time, the chart was a warning for subscribers. An epic turn in the economy and financial markets began a few months later. That turn is clear to see on the updated chart taken from page 4 of the May 2013 Financial Forecast.

Filed Under: , financial forecast

Category: U.S. Economy 


EURUSD: Lots of Ups and Downs, Zero Net Progress

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/9/2013 2:30:00 PM

Here's what's interesting. Since the start of May, the euro bulls have tried to rally EURUSD higher at least five times. On May 8, we saw the latest attampt at a rally. It went as high as 1.3195. Then on May 9, the market fell again. That has been the fate of every rally, so far ...

Filed Under: , Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, forex trading

Category: Currencies 


The End of A Multi-Month Holding Pattern in Crude Oil?
EWI's Metals Specialty Service uses pattern analysis to a potential post-triangle thrust in crude oil prices.

By Nico Isaac
5/8/2013 4:30:00 PM

For many traders, a long sideways trend in prices chart is akin to getting stuck on a one-lane road behind a very slow car. Those are the times when patience wears thin. The mainstream financial media cloaks words that would be spoken in anger into family-friendly phrases like, "Equivocal price action" and "Waiting on a fundamental catalyst to provide direction."
 

Filed Under: , crude oil, Elliott wave

Category: Energy 


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.