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June 24 FOMC Meeting: Can the Fed Defeat the Bear?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 03:45:00 ET

t's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog. In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate.

Prechter on T-Bonds, THEN and NOW

Robert Folsom — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:45:00 ET

That was in 2002. Jump ahead to 2008 and early 2009 -- we've seen the gargantuan size of the U.S. government's bailout schemes, and watched the Federal Reserve's unprecedented steps to keep interest rates low. Clearly the time had come for Prechter to focus again on government debt...

The Fed Does Not Lead the Bond Market, It FOLLOWS

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 May 2009 02:45:00 ET

According to conventional economic wisdom, the Federal Reserve is to the U.S. bond market what a hypnotist is to his patient. A typical trance would induce the following behavior: "When you hear the words 'rate cut' or 'cash infusion,' you will proceed to act like a BULL and rally." In reality, however, the bond market completely ignores the "soothing" voice of the Central Bank. Then it does whatever the hooey it wants.

U.S. Bond Market Stays One Step A-"Fed"

Nico Isaac — Fri, 01 May 2009 06:15:00 ET

For all you obscure holiday buffs out there, today is the first Friday of May: International "No Pants Day." (Seriously, look it up) The annual event seems especially relevant seeing as the U.S. Federal Reserve has just been caught with its metaphorical trousers down...

The Story Told By Treasury Yields: Deflation

Nico Isaac — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 05:30:00 ET

As the year 2007 rolled into 2008, the mainstream financial experts were certain of one thing (if you don't count death and taxes): Inflation would take the U.S. economy by storm. The picture of Treasury Yields, however, foretold an entirely different story: Deflation.

T-Bills Are Telling You What The Media Won't

Robert Folsom — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 05:30:00 ET

Was the $32 billion supply of ZERO-YIELD securities available at today's Treasury auction enough to meet the demand?

A Picture Of Treasury Yields Is Worth One Word: DEFLATION

Nico Isaac — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 06:00:00 ET

As the year 2007 rolled into 2008, the mainstream financial experts were certain of one thing (if you don't count death and taxes): Inflation would take the U.S. economy by storm and trigger an across-the-board flight out of the rate-sensitive bond market. The very opposite -- DEFLATION -- has occurred.

Fear-Based Trading

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 08:30:00 ET

Corrective Elliott wave patterns – that is, waves 2 and 4 – often have overlapping, jittery internal wave subdivisions are notoriously difficult to count. Forecasting their termination points is just as hard. However, even during the toughest market corrections, the Elliott Wave Principle gives you a distinct advantage. Here's how...

Saint Albert the Great… and Merrill Lynch

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 01:15:00 ET

I have spoken in this column before that it is the insidious nature of deflation to undermine all asset classes and erode the capital base of an economy. As we unwind this credit cycle, cash is king, and commercial and investment banks are scrambling for capital – capital that has not been forthcoming while writedowns continue into Q4...

Zeno of Elea

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:45:00 ET

I was surprised to see today that the U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had created the infinite from the finite. Last I heard regarding the Fannie and Freddie saga was for the Treasury to buy $2.5 billion of equity in the corporations, if needed. But today, that number became "undefined" or, if you will, infinite, as Congress hammered out details. More...