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U.S. Dollar Vs. Euro: Expect A Turbulent Thursday

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 06:30:00 ET

On Thursday, July 3, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. That same day, economists expect the U.S. jobs number to show a 60,000 reduction. Question: How would the two events affect the U.S. dollar's standing against other currencies?

EURUSD: U.S. Interest Rates Unchanged. Now What?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 06:15:00 ET

Now that the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged and the U.S. dollar lost on the news, the question is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come? Here's a chart Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service showed right before the Fed's announcement on June 25...

Dollar vs. Euro: What Will The Fed Do On Wednesday?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:00:00 ET

Going into the June 25 interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, forex analysts unanimously say they expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady. I guess we'll just have to listen to what Ben Bernanke says in his announcement and try to read between the lines. Unless, of course, instead of listening to Bernanke, you try and listen to the market itself...

Forex: "When U.S. Stocks Decline, the Dollar Rallies?"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 05:30:00 ET

There is a persistent belief among many forex traders that trends in various global markets have a profound influence on the trends in currencies. But can you really forecast the trend in one market based on another with consistent results?

Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar (Forex): When News Doesn't Move Markets, What Does?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 03:15:00 ET

Forex markets have been volatile lately, and you've probably heard mainstream forex analysts citing various economic and news reports, trying to explaining why. There is one major problem with the premise that markets are moved by the news, though. If you continue this logic, on days when there are no major economic reports, you would expect markets to go sideways. And yet even on those days, the market moves, too. How come?

Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar (Forex): Surprise, Surprise

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:45:00 ET

What an incredible rally in the EURUSD we've seen on June 5 and 6. On Tuesday, June 4, after Ben Bernanke said the Fed "is watching the dollar," the buck gained close to 200 pips against the euro. Wednesday's trading was very quiet, and it did seem like tables were indeed turning for the dollar. But then on Thursday…

EURUSD (Forex): It's Oh So Quiet

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

If you trade forex, you've probably been watching the current action – or, rather, lack of it – in the euro-dollar exchange rate and wondering what's going on. The action has been pitiful: After falling almost 200 pips in a matter of hours on Tuesday (June 3), the EURUSD entered a sideways trading range that has continued for… well, almost 30 hours, as of this writing. How will it end?

U.S. Dollar: Comeback Time?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Since the start of 2008, the U.S. dollar has been about as welcome on Wall Street as Sharon Stone in China after her comment that bad “karma” was behind the devastating Sichuan Province earthquake.In late May, however, the dollar-bashing bandwagon came to a screeching halt. And, one by one, some of the most loyal passengers stepped off to say the long-awaited “Dollar Comeback” has arrived.

Video (Forex): "Prepare for a Surprising U.S. Dollar Decline"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 27 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

Watch this free video clip EWI's own Jim Martens recorded for his Currency Specialty Service subscribers on May 9. If you remember, at that time, the USD had gained strongly, and rumors were flying that it would gain even more. But watch this video and see how simple Elliott wave techniques can help you bet against the crowd's opinion…

Forex: How To Stop Chasing Your Own Tail

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 20 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

Do you ever get the feeling that the conventional market analysts quoted in the financial press are, all to often, a step behind the curve? They try hard to explain how news stories or actions in one market are responsible for reactions in another, and they are very good at it. For example, when the U.S. dollar gained against the euro on Monday (May 19), they said...

VIDEO: Learn To Set Price Targets With Fibonacci

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 14 May 2008 06:30:00 ET

In the video you are about to see, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist uses a chart of the euro-Swiss frank currency pair. In mid-March, the EUR/CHF stopped falling and staged a powerful rally. This video was recorded on March 6, several days before the rally began. So, not only is this a great lesson on using Fibonacci ratios to set price targets – it's a great forecast, too. Just watch.

U.S. Dollar (Forex): Speculation Vs. Facts

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 12 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

The newswires trumpeted the dollar's slight gain in the post-weekend trading as a sign that the greenback's decline is over, citing numerous "speculations" and "rumors." Too bad the dollar reversed on Monday morning and slid significantly against major currencies, losing almost 200 pips to the euro. EWI's Currency Specialty Service, however, has held a bearish view on the USD since Friday. Why? In short, because there is speculation – and then there are facts...

Forex: Euro Vs. Dollar – Up or Down?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 05 May 2008 06:00:00 ET

You've probably noticed how conflicting the mainstream financial media's analysis of the U.S. dollar vs. euro exchange rate has been over the past few days. The European Central Bank meets on May 8 -- will that be bullish or bearish for the euro-dollar exchange rate?

U.S. Dollar: Death By Deficit?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 02 May 2008 05:00:00 ET

News Flash: Cinco De Mayo is NOT the celebration of Mexico's Independence from Spain. And, in lieu of the non-event event, consider one of the most common misconceptions of mainstream financial wisdom; namely: That a widening deficit decreases the value of the dollar, and vice versa.

Forex: Fed Cuts Rates…And The U.S. Dollar GAINS?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 03:45:00 ET

On Wednesday morning, forex analysts speculated that the U.S. dollar was "headed for its first monthly advance against the euro." But after the Federal Reserve anounced its rate cut at 2:15 PM, the dollar lost instead. What happened?

U.S. Dollar Gains Big; EURUSD Slides. Why?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 06:30:00 ET

Since Tuesday (April 22), the EURUSD lost close to 400 pips, or four cents. As usual, the question on every forex trader's mind is – why is the dollar suddenly gaining on the euro?

Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar: $1.60 And Climbing?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 05:00:00 ET

Tuesday brought another piece of bad news for the U.S. dollar: For the first time in history, the exchange rate between it and the euro went above one dollar and sixty cents. That, from a standpoint of technical analysis methods (one of which is Elliott wave) is a very interesting moment for the euro-dollar – for two reasons...

Forex: Dollar Rebounds After Hitting New Lows

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:00:00 ET

The U.S. dollar fell to a new all-time low against the euro on April 16 -- mostly because of a rise in European inflation, apparently. But what if the euro-dollar moved down today instead? Can you imagine the same reason being used to justify a market decline instead? We can...

U.S. Dollar: An Intervention?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 06:45:00 ET

If you're a currency trader, you know exactly what the word "intervention" means. When a central bank decides to step in and buy or sell a currency to fulfill whatever plan it may be pursuing, it may wreak havoc on the forex markets. What happened in the forex markets this past weekend was not an intervention – just a strong allusion to one. Still...

Trading Forex: Patience Pays Off

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 07:45:00 ET

"4/01/2008 - Tuesday was a great example of why patience in the market is so important for most traders. When I first looked at the chart of the Dollar Index, I saw a rally that had retraced just about 61.8% of the prior decline..."

VIDEO (Forex): Which Elliott Waves Are Best For Trading?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 09:30:00 ET

We at elliottwave.com have many resources that can help you learn Elliott – but nothing helps you learn faster than watching a good teacher. Watch this free 6-minute clip from a live 49-minute webinar Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens held his subscribers on March 25. Here's what Jim talked about...

Video (Forex): War Of Words - A Telling Sign Of Reversal

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 06:15:00 ET

In early March, arguments over the weakening U.S. dollar got quite heated. Calls on the U.S. Federal Reserve to "do more" to support the dollar and forecasts for the euro/dollar exchange rate of $1.60 or higher were not uncommon. That's when -- seemingly against all odds -- the USD reversed and started pushing higher against the EUR and other major currencies. Why?

Forex: Fed Cuts…and the U.S. Dollar Gains?!

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 05:30:00 ET

Question: When the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank lowers interest rates, what is the U.S. dollar supposed to do, according to the conventional economic wisdom? That’s right, fall. So why then did the dollar gain today (March 18) after the Fed cut rates by a hefty 0.75%?

U.S. Dollar: Speculation Aside...

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 06:00:00 ET

Before the U.S. dollar fell to a new all-time low against the euro last week, opinions were divided on whether or not that would actually happen. Most of the arguments revolved around the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates policy. Problem is, despite many analysts' claims, there is no persistent positive correlation between the U.S. dollar and interest rates.

VIDEO (Forex): How To Use Market Corrections to Your Advantage

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 09:40:33 ET

In mid-February, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen stood near 108. Today, it stands near 102, some 600 points (or pips) lower. What if you knew a technique, which -- just by looking at chart picture of the USD/JPY -- could have warned you of this move before it occurred? The free 9-minute video you are about to see shows you just how to do it.

Forex: EUR/USD -- Explain This, Please

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 12:30:00 ET

Just minutes after the release of a disappointing U.S. employment report last Friday morning (Feb. 1), the U.S. dollar suddenly got stronger and the EUR/USD exchange rate plunged. The fall was fast and deep; by Friday night, the dollar stood over 100 pips stronger against the euro -- despite the morning's bad economic news. Strange? You can say that again. But what happened next was even stranger.

Forex: Look Twice, Triangles Are Everywhere

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 03:35:41 ET

You don't have to squint to see them. Watch currency market charts long enough and you''ll see them everywhere: those moments on a chart when the market first swings wide up and down, then less so, then the swings narrow even more... Then for a while it seems the market is stuck, going only sideways, until -- boom! -- it launches into a wild spike that takes it far, far, and away. Triangles. That's what Elliotticians call those contracting swings in the charts. They are usually sideways moves comprised of 5 waves...

Forex: The Yen, Fading Star of the Show

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 12:30:00 ET

With all the talk about the U.S. housing crisis as the reason for the ongoing credit crunch, news about another "culprit" -- carry trade -- have been getting lost in the shuffle lately. And to think that less than a year ago, carry trade was said to be the centerpiece of "global liquidity." When the world's stock markets showed first signs of future trouble and tumbled hard in late February-early March of 2007, it was the Japanese yen, not the U.S. housing worries, which took the blame.

Forex: No More Dollars At Taj Mahal

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 12:30:00 ET

It looks like the U.S. dollar's renewed weakness is sparking another wave of resentment around the world. The Associated Press has just reported that, "India's tourism minister said Thursday [Jan. 3] that U.S. dollars will no longer be accepted at the country's heritage tourist sites, like the famed Taj Mahal." The USD is at a nine-year low against the rupee, and it shows. Our publications have documented similar cases of how the one-sided collective psychology against the buck has translated into similar headlines and actions.

U.S. Dollar: Model Behavior

Editorial Staff — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 12:30:00 ET

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Forex: Is The Worst Over For The U.S. Dollar?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 12:30:00 ET

From its September 30 all-time high of $1.4282, so far this week the euro/dollar exchange rate is down over 200 pips, or two full cents.

U.S. Dollar: "This Reaction Speaks Volumes"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 12:30:00 ET

"The reaction to a sudden and unexpected event typically reveals what investors are really thinking. Historically, in uncertain times the reaction is to buy dollars: the dollar represents stability. But that was not the reaction. This is an example of the general feeling toward the dollar. I think the reaction to sell dollars speaks volumes."

Forex: Focus On The Underlying Trend

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 12:30:00 ET

"I won't argue that at times news events move forex markets. My question is this. How could we ever really know when a market-moving event might occur? Taken a step further, how can we know WHICH event traders are focused on? Is it employment numbers? Production numbers? The focus seems to shift from one set of numbers to the next. What we need to focus on is the underlying trend" -- Jim Martens, editor, Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service.

When Big Nations Act Like Bickering Kids

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 13 Aug 2007 02:00:00 ET

This was a week for bickering. The U.S. Senate pushed our Treasury Department to tell China to let its currency float higher against the dollar so that we won't pay as much for the huge amount of goods we buy from China. But China snapped back with its own argument that's the equivalent of a nuclear deterrent. It goes like this: If you try to cut back on your trade deficit with us, then we can just start selling (and stop buying) some of that debt of yours that we hold. Once this argument gets going, it becomes a game of chicken to see who will blink first.