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Defending Ebenezer Scrooge

Robert Folsom — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 11:30:00 ET

Christmas is no time for insults, but somehow it's the only season when someone can slap you with the one name that really hurts...

The National Christmas Tree… Indicator?

Alan Hall — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 05:15:00 ET

The National Christmas Tree has a fascinating history, especially at Christmastime. Like the price of gold, the height of the Tree has actually been “regulated” at times. In December 2006 I wrote a tongue-in-cheek piece for EWI's Market Watch page, which explained the correlation between stock prices and the height and number of lights on the National Christmas Tree.

"Skirmish," "Invasion," and/or "War" Between Russia and Georgia

Robert Folsom — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 04:15:00 ET

The erupting conflict between Russia and the Republic of Georgia in South Ossetia can safely be described as an unscheduled news event: Initial news reports of the fighting ranged from "armed skirmish" to "invasion" to "war." Some news stories tried to offer a context to Friday's fighting, saying it represents the culmination of years of tension between Russia and Georgia. While the tension has indeed been long-standing, this still begs the question: Why is the "culmination" unfolding now?

Short Shorts and Stocks: What's the Connection?

Gary Grimes — Tue, 20 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

Perusing the mainstream media headlines yesterday, I came upon a story that caught my attention. The headline: Designer says fashion will "prevail" in the face of economic downturn. No argument here, but my question is ...

Patterns, the Presidency, and Elliott Waves

Robert Folsom — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

Most academics and economists have long resisted any suggestion that prices in financial markets are patterned. I find their attitude an endless source of curiosity. If collective behavior is patterned, and if financial markets are a collective activity, then it's common sense to believe that a price chart may be more than a bunch of squiggly lines....

What's in Store for the Mega-Rich in a Bear Market?

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 13 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

The headline in the Wall Street Journal's Wealth Report blog caught my eye: "10 Things the Wealthy Should Leave Their Kids — Besides Money" (May 12, 2008). Which brought to mind immediately a section in our most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast about the future for the mega-rich in a bear market.

From "Corpse Art" To "Skullmania"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 08 May 2008 11:45:00 ET

We call a urinal "the most influential work of art of the 20th century" and flock to see dead bodies set as sculptures. Is there a connection between the recent popularity of “all things melancholic” and the state of our collective spirits? We at Elliott Wave International think there is. Watch this free documentary for the answers.

Fish, Barrel, Pull the Trigger

Robert Folsom — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 05:00:00 ET

Enough with the fish metaphor; I'm not going to do any shooting today. Instead, I'd like to offer a three-sentence explanation of why the conventional wisdom is so often so mistaken. Here goes:

The Bigger They Come, The Harder They Fall

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 05:30:00 ET

Of all the reactions to the news about Eliot Spitzer's call-girl dalliance, there's one you won't read anywhere but here: Former heroes get cut down to size in a bear market.

Today the World Is Smaller

Robert Folsom — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 05:45:00 ET

Which individual has exerted the greatest influence on American political thought over the past half-century? I can think of very few people who deserve serious mention, but on my short list, one particular person's influence plainly trumps all others....

From The Oscars To Finance: 1929 Remembered

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 05:45:00 ET

It's amazing to think that the very first Oscars were held on May 16, 1929, when movie stars drove up in Tin Lizzies for a private dinner of 200-plus guests at the Roosevelt Hotel. The ticket for the evening that lasted little more than 15 minutes cost only $5. How things have changed... Yet in other ways, such as the films themselves and the finanical "drama" of the Great Depression, 1929 feels eerily familiar.

Hint to Putin & Chavez: Markets Are Key to Your Popularity

Susan C. Walker — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 09:45:00 ET

Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez, needn't have waited for vote returns; all they really needed to do was double-check how their nations' stock markets did over the past few months. Then they could have known the outcomes in advance of the vote counts. Why?

Investigating the Event Cascade

Alan Hall — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 04:40:00 ET

Aircraft disasters are examined in minute detail. When a cause is found, investigators seek causes of the cause as they work back through the "event cascade" that initiated the crash. We do this same after-the-fact investigation of financial crashes and social events like wars, ostensibly in an effort to learn from our mistakes. Generally speaking, we humans do better at understanding the airplane crashes.

Munchie Nation

Alan Hall — Wed, 25 Apr 2007 01:25:00 ET

Socionomics postulates that the stock market is related to manifestations of social behavior in popular culture. But how big are these relationships, and how much influence do they have on what we do? A recent article in the New York Times by Michael Pollan helps to illustrate a large growth pattern that stretches back past the origin of the Farm Bill in the hungry scarcity of the 1930s Dust Bowl.

The Socionomics of Scientific Consensus

Alan Hall — Tue, 20 Feb 2007 01:15:00 ET

"Tire Reef off Florida Proves a Disaster," read a USA Today headline. About two million old tires were dumped in the ocean off Fort Lauderdale in 1972 in an attempt to simultaneously create an artificial reef and reduce the mosquito-breeding habitat provided by old tires. "Now" we find that marine life won't grow on the tires, which break loose, move around, scour the bottom, damage natural reefs and wash up on beaches. To retrieve and dispose of a single tire from the ocean costs about $16. A main proponent of the tire reef plan, an otherwise respectable professor of "ocean engineering" at a Florida university, says, "I look back now and see it was a bad idea."

The Bear Earth

Alan Hall — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 01:05:00 ET

At a dinner recently, I told friends I didn't have all the information I needed to decide whether global warming is caused by humans. They inched away from me, glaring as if I had blasphemed. The issue is emotional and political, and feelings cloud perception.

Stupendously Lucky Us

Alan Hall — Fri, 29 Dec 2006 01:45:00 ET

We are a minority species, living in a thin zone on the surface of a ball of rock, metal and water, hurtling through a vacuum along with an assortment of dangerous flying objects, bathed in deadly radiation. A fickle, feeble magnetic field is our only shield against the radiation and the loss of our atmosphere to solar wind. We build fragile homes on a violently mobile planetary crust that surfs a hot, glutinous mantle. The fractured plates of the crust are exceedingly dangerous near the edges… where we’ve built cities because it is beautiful.

The National Christmas Tree... Indicator?

Alan Hall — Thu, 21 Dec 2006 11:45:00 ET

Like the price of gold, the height of the National Christmas Tree has been “regulated” at times -- by pruning. It is a long and fascinating history, at least at Christmastime. Following are some interesting facts about the Tree. They are dated so you can locate them on the chart of the DJI (courtesy of Yahoo Charts) at the bottom of this article.

A Family Portrait of Financial Mania

Alan Hall — Tue, 21 Nov 2006 12:45:00 ET

I write from the catbird seat here at EWI, with access to the best technical market analysis in the world. In the space of an hour I can read forecasts of commodities, currencies, stocks, metals, and interest rates, and compare them to socionomic observations of news and events. Nowhere else can you grab such a broad, detailed snapshot of the clockworks of the “engine of history.” Today’s digital snapshot is a family photo of a resurging financial mania.

Searching for FWMDs

Alan Hall — Wed, 25 Oct 2006 01:05:00 ET

Once-transparent global financial systems have become opaque, changing too fast to be visible. New varieties of financial contracts are evolving rapidly, such as credit derivative futures, credit default swaps, binary options, and soon perhaps, derivatives of credit derivatives, or even derivatives cubed (D³, perhaps?).