The results of a 2003 survey published in Germany this spring showed that “more and more Germans do not want to have children.” Almost 15% of all women and 26% of men between 20 and 39 are against having kids – period. That’s a large increase from the early 1990s, when only about 10% of women and 12% of men in the same age group were opposed to the idea (Deutsche Welle).
Germany’s Interior Minister is troubled by such “egotistical tendencies.” The government thinks it’s about the declining values: “We must strengthen the value of children, of families, and of more cooperation between the generations in Germany," they say.
The study’s authors disagree. The two main reasons cited by the respondents were “concerns about the future” and “worries that having kids may lower [parents’] standards of living.” Things like a near a record-high unemployment sure aren’t boosting people’s faith in a better tomorrow, goes the argument. (What’s interesting, though, is that the same study also showed that people from the economically depressed former Eastern Germany are more willing to have kids than those living in a more prosperous western part of the country. Hmm.)
What people really need, says the government, is to get back their “positive overall outlook again.” How? Fix the economy and you’ll fix the low birth rates. Germans will be voting on the new government on September 18, and fixing the economy and thus reviving the country’s birth rate is one of the hottest issues on the election agenda. Many, however, doubt that economic measures will make much difference. Deutsche Welle puts it very well when they say that, “the natural and somewhat obscure longing to have a child has little to do with state subsidies and labor market structures.”
Exactly. Economic stimuli – like financial support for parents, a common remedy tried by other European governments over the past few years – have not produced consistent results. After all, how do you fix a problem if you’re not even sure what’s causing it?
You may be surprised, but looking at this problem from an Elliott wave perspective may offer the best explanation yet again. (Hint: social mood!) Remember, the stock market is the most sensitive indicator of social mood. When mood improves, stocks rally. When it falls, so do stocks. In our own studies, we've compared charts of the U.S. and British conception rates with bull and bear markets in the Dow and the FTSE. The charts clearly showed that birth rates respond to changes in social mood, as reflected by trends in stocks. It seems that “when aggregate feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence wax, people engage in more sexual activity with the aim of having children. When these feelings wane, so does the desire for generating offspring.”
But wait a minute – German stocks have rallied since early 2003, indicating an improving social mood, so why haven’t the German birth rates turned up? Well, we’ve also observed that at least in the U.S., conceptions tended to respond only to long-term upturns in stock prices. What could this mean for the fate of the DAX’s two-year rally? You’ll find the answer in our September European Financial Forecast. Read it online right now – risk-free, as always.