Conquer the Crash 2014

No book forecast the financial turmoil in 2002-03 and 2007-08 as early and in as much detail as the first and second editions of Bob Prechter's Conquer the Crash. The book became an instant New York Times bestseller: More than 100,000 people read it in time to protect their financial future.

Now, as the markets close in on their third massive top in 15 years, more people than ever are in financial peril -- again.

As Bob Prechter releases Conquer the Crash 2014, Wall Street and the investing public have reached bullish sentiment extremes that are even greater than in 2000 and 2007.

You can see this for yourself in examples 1, 2, and 3 below. Examples 4 and 5, however, begin to tell a different story. Consider them previews of what Bob Prechter explains in the 424 pages of Conquer the Crash 3rd edition.

  1. Investors Intelligence Advisors Survey: Not since 1987 has this crucial sentiment indicator been so bullish. But, it is a contrary indicator. It was also bullish going into the bear market years of 2000 and 2007. The arrow points to today's BIGGER extreme.

    Investor Intelligence Adivors' Survey

  2. Margin Debt is when investors borrow money to buy stocks. Here's margin debt from the mid-1990s thru today. Debt turned extreme in 2000 and 2007 and foretold big bear markets. Now investors have borrowed $178 billion -- an all-time record of debt to buy stocks. This is risk taken to an extreme.

    Worker pay as share G.D.P.

  3. Income Inequality is how economists say "the rich get richer." This is what it looks like. For the first time in a century, the top 10% of U.S. households have MORE than 50% of all income. Any questions?

    Top 10% surpasses 50% of total U.S. Income for First Time

  4. 20x INCREASE in Tax receipts-to-GDP: Here's what taxes cost the economy each year (in GDP). Federal taxes used to cost very little -- as little as 3% of GDP. But the income tax drove the economic cost of taxation up by multiples and launched the big government era -- as high as 15%-to-20% of GDP. Ever see a chart like this in history class?

    Total Receipts (Taxes) to GNP/GDP

  5. (Un)Employment: Here's the accurate picture of how many people have jobs. In 2000, the percentage of employed working-age people was near 65%. A deep decline began in 2007. Millions of jobless individuals remain stuck in the grim rut. For every 100 working-age people, 59 have jobs, 41 do not (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

    The Employment Ratio

  6. And it gets worse

    Worker pay as share of G.D.P.

    Worker pay as share G.D.P.
    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, authors' calculations

Does this look like a "recovery" to you? A "recovery" that will last?
That is why Bob Prechter is releasing the 3rd edition of Conquer the Crash right now. Much of the book's text remains word-for-word from the previous two editions. Yet Conquer the Crash 2014 includes 130 pages of all-new content, including analysis, forecasts, charts and specific instruction, now appearing for the first time in print:

  • The updated list of the two highest-rated banks in each one of the 50 U.S. states
  • Must-know commentary about the financial rating services
  • Prechter's analysis of bear funds and ETFs
  • A list of "safety-first" money managers
  • Select recommendations for the most credible gold and silver coin dealers

Plus dozens more forecasts and recommendations to help you survive what's next.

The Epic First and Second Editions

There's never been a book like Conquer the Crash: It foresaw and explained the debt crisis, the devastating collapse in home prices, the two-bear-market-in-one-decade stock declines, the demise of Fannie and Freddie, the Federal Reserve's failure to turn the trend, and lots more.

Conquer the Crash read this about real estate:

Real estate prices have always fallen hard when stock prices have fallen hard.... What screams "bubble" – giant, historic bubble – in real estate today is the system-wide extension of massive amounts of credit to finance property purchases.... Many people have been rushing to borrow the last pennies possible on their homes. They have been taking out home equity loans so they can buy stocks and TVs and cars and whatever else their hearts desire at the moment. This widespread practice is brewing a terrible disaster. (p. 152)

And this about the coming debt crisis before it happened:

Debts are retired by paying them off, "restructuring" or default. In the first case, no value is lost; in the second, some value; in the third, all value. In desperately trying to raise cash to pay off loans, borrowers bring all kinds of assets to market, including stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate, causing their prices to plummet. The process ends only after the supply of credit falls to a level at which it is collateralized acceptably to the surviving creditors. (pp. 91-92)

And this about the Federal Reserve:

For many people, the single biggest financial shock and surprise over the next decade will be the revelation that the Fed has never really known what on earth it was doing....Make sure that you avoid the disillusion and financial devastation that will afflict those who harbor a misguided faith in the world’s central bankers and the idea that they can manage our money, our credit or our economy. (p. 124)

And this about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

Major financial institutions actually invest in huge packages of [Fannie and Freddie's] mortgages, an investment that they and their clients (which may include you) will surely regret.... Investors in these companies' stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when [Fannie and Freddie's] stock prices and bond ratings collapse. Most rating services will not see it coming. (p. 154, 225)

The first two editions of Conquer the Crash published when optimism reigned and the financial world was partying around-the-clock. But then the average U.S. homeowner suffered a decline of 30% to 40% in property value. In 2007-2009, investors suffered their biggest portfolio losses since 1929-1932. Homeowners watched Fannie Mae wither into a zombie corporation under the government's protection. Citizens in the U.S. and Europe watched politicians try to cope with the growing debt crisis -- to no avail. Those leaders in fact made the crisis worse by piling new debt on top of old.

And for the record, Bob Prechter's stunning foresight extended far beyond the realm of finance:

The occupation of Iraq by the U.S. will progress from a quagmire to a financial, political and public relations disaster. (October 1, 2003)

The benefit of hindsight helps us see that those forecasts were stunningly accurate. But at the time he published them, Bob Prechter's analysis was about as "contrary" as contrary can get.

Which raises the question, "Contrary to what...? Fair enough. The short answer is, contrary to the conventional wisdom of the time in the financial media, on Wall Street, and among most of the investing public.

Here we'll let that sentiment from those years speak for itself -- verbatim from Conventional Wisdom Headquarters. (Please note the dates.)

"... the still relatively small but rapidly growing market in credit derivatives has to date functioned well, with payouts proceeding smoothly for the most part... But so far, so good."

September 25, 2002 | Source

"American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage."

February 23, 2004 | Source

"... a significant decline in consumer incomes or house prices could quickly alter the [positive] outlook; nonetheless, both scenarios appear unlikely in the quarters immediately ahead.

October 19, 2004 | Source

"... a 'bubble' in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely [but] there do appear to be... signs of froth in some local markets."

June 9, 2005 | Source

"... a decline in the national housing price level would need to be substantial to trigger a significant rise in foreclosures, because the vast majority of homeowners have built up substantial equity in their homes."

July 20, 2005 | Source

"I was aware that the loosening of mortgage credit terms for subprime borrowers increased financial risk. But... the benefits of broadened home ownership are worth the risk."

The Age of Turbulence (Sept. 2008), p. 233


Conquer the Crash is a book-length forecast that's still coming true -- only some of the future has caught up with the specific predictions Prechter published

There is much more to come, which is why it remains your best resource for practical "How To," "What To" and "Should You" advice to help you survive and prosper in this long-term bear market. If you own an earlier edition, you already know it was a financial lifesaver in 2002 and 2007.

Yet as 2014-2015 unfolds, the third edition will prove itself the most imperative of all. No investment volume can match the fearless candor of Prechter's analysis regarding the months and years ahead.

You can (and should) get your hands on Conquer the Crash 2014 immediately. As Bob explains in the book, bear markets are much shorter affairs than bull markets. They bring the kind of destruction that can ruin anyone who ignores the warning signs. It can take decades - not years - to recoup losses. It's more important than ever to take action now.

Order Conquer the Crash 2014: $29 for eBook or print edition, $39.95 for both.

Note to subscribers: If you subscribe to The Theorist, you may recognize some of the new charts and content in Conquer the Crash 2014 from recent issues.

Order by phone from 8 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time Monday-Friday by calling 800-336-1618 (or 770-536-0309 Internationally) or start an online chat. Please mention code: CTC3 - DC

The updated list of the two highest-rated banks in each one of the 50 U.S. states.

  • Must-know commentary about the financial rating services.
  • Prechter's analysis of bear funds and ETFs.
  • A list of "safety-first" money managers.
  • Select recommendations for the most credible gold and silver coin dealers.

Plus dozens more forecasts and recommendations to help you survive what's next.


Note to subscribers: If you subscribe to The Theorist, you may recognize some of the new charts and content in Conquer the Crash 2014 from recent issues.

From 2002:
"This book outlines brilliantly and simply the rationale for how and why the bubble developed. Prechter will go down in history as a legend for having predicted the secular bull market and now having provided a lucid description of the economic cataclysm that unfortunately lies ahead. I urge you to read this book and give it to your loved ones. It provides great tactical advice on how to prepare yourself financially. Reading this book could make the difference between agony and comfort over the next 20 years."

– David Tice, President, Prudent Bear Funds

From 2004:
"Prechter can take credit as the godfather of the modern deflation theory."

– Kirk Washington, Benchmark magazine

From 2009:
"Rooted in decades of serious research, published in 2002, this book was a frighteningly accurate predictor of the 2008 crash. It explains the ‘big picture’ of how economic conditions ebb and flow over time, how to profit from them and how to avoid getting caught in the inevitable squeezes that wipe out the unwary (i.e. 99% of the world)."

– Ken McCarthy, The Independence Day Blueprint