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Why the U.S. Dollar Index's 13.5-Year High Was Expected

Elliott wave analysis anticipated a turn higher at the May 3 spike low

by Bob Stokes
Updated: November 18, 2016

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[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

The U.S. Dollar Index just hit its highest level since 2003.

Yet, on May 3, it appeared that dollar bears were getting the upper hand.  By the end of that trading session, the U.S. Dollar Index had ended sharply lower.

Even so, just three days later, our May 2016 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said:

The U.S. Dollar Index spiked down to 91.919 on May 3, its lowest intraday level since January 2015; it then reversed to close up on the day. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has been tracking the progress of [a corrective wave], which started at the 100.39 high in March 2015. … [The next wave] will carry to new highs.

Even so, U.S. dollar bears were out in full force during the summer.

On Aug. 18 Marketwatch published an article titled "Chart watchers say the dollar is on the verge of unraveling." Here's an excerpt:

The dollar looks to be on the verge of a prolonged downturn, according to an analysis by [an] investment group.

Apparently, this investment firm does not employ Elliott wave analysis.

More recenty, others saw a different reason why the U.S. Dollar Index would plummet (Bloomberg, Nov. 6):

A Trump Win Could Sink the Dollar

Well, as we know, Donald Trump won. Yet, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to rise and hit a 13.5-year high. Review this chart (entire wave labeling available to subscribers)  and commentary from our Nov. 16 Short Term Update:

Today’s 100.570 intraday high in the U.S. Dollar Index carries prices to a new high, in line with [our] forecast for [the current wave up]. The index should carry higher still.

Indeed, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to climb on Nov. 17, reaching 100.98.

Elliott wave analysis can help you spot important turns in financial markets that others miss.

Right now, it appears the U.S. Dollar Index is approaching another key juncture.

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