by Bob Stokes
Updated: November 09, 2016
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
Social mood fluctuations naturally lead to changes in social actions, which can range from changes in clothing styles and car designs to who a nation chooses for their leader and even the conditions that lead to war.
Obviously, all of these things, and many more, are there for the whole world to see.
But did you know that social mood also has an influence on the very private matter of procreational activity?
It does appear so. When social mood is positive, couples tend to have more children than when mood is negative.
Before laying out the evidence, keep in mind that the stock market is a near instantaneous reflector of social mood.
Let's start off with a chart and commentary from the November 1999 Elliott Wave Theorist:
The chart shows that demographic data line up almost perfectly with the stock market, particularly when it is expressed in terms of the advance-decline line. ... The data shown in bars is annual birth data, lagged by one year to reflect (within three months) the number of annual conceptions. The major stock market lows of 1932 and 1974 coincide exactly with the major nadirs in procreational activity. The peaks in procreational activity correspond to peaks in the a-d line. ... This correlation holds throughout all the available data, which dates from 1908 for conceptions and 1926 for the a-d line; no data contradict it.
The advance-decline line is an ideal sociometer given that conceptions have closely tracked stock market momentum indicators, which turn down before stock averages do. But, when stocks went to decimal pricing, the data became skewed, so we had to abandon the cumulative advance-decline line. We substituted real estate prices and the Dow Industrials.
With that in mind, our October 2016 Theorist provides an update with this chart and commentary:
Trends in the stock market correlate positively with human conception rates. This is a very long term correlation and is not expected to coincide with year-by-year trends. Nevertheless, the conception rate continued to follow leading sociometers upward into the peak of the biggest U.S. investment mania ever, that of real estate, into 2006. That's why in 2007 more babies were born than in any other year in U.S. history. A drop in births followed the leading sociometer downward into a century-low birth rate in 2009 and persisted for four years, reflecting the fall in real estate prices that lasted into 2012.
We expect conception rates to continue to turn down before the stock market does.