by Nico Isaac
Updated: March 16, 2017
For commodity investors and traders, it's easy to fall victim to information overload. A salvo of reports fire out at you from every direction, detailing the latest crop-helping or harming weather pattern, political disruption in growing regions, production numbers, supply data, and so on.
What matters most? What should be ignored? What will affect prices right now, or far down the road?
Here's a helpful exercise: Imagine the markets are an ocean. Above the surface, the water is rough and choppy as strong winds push the waves back and forth. But if you dip below the surface, it's calm and clear.
In our experience, that's where Elliott wave analysis exists -- underneath the surface, where near- and long-term price trends persist despite the agitation above.
In early 2016, in the highly anticipated Monthly Commodity Junctures' 2016 Commodity Outlook, our senior analyst Jeffrey Kennedy donned his virtual scuba gear and dove below the surface of the world's key markets to identify the most likely course of prices for the entire year ahead.
Here is an excerpt and chart from Jeffrey's 2016 Commodity Outlook for soybeans:
"It does appear that soybeans have put in a low. I feel confident enough to forecast a move to the upside in this market and specifically the area I'm looking for prices to achieve would be 10.45 through 11.13... This is straight Elliott. This is right out of the book.
"Also, too, the move I'm looking for to the upside should last a number of months, specifically say six months, maybe nine. This move should push into say the June/July window. This is essentially going to be a bear market rally that once finished, will lead to another decline in this market."
In his December 2016, Monthly Commodity Junctures' Year End Review video, Jeffrey revisited his long-term outlook for the soybean market. To watch the clip and find out what happened, login or sign up to become a Club EWI member below.
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